The idea of Japan joining the EU, why not.

"Japan will join the EU!", I would like to shout on the 1st April. 

Added on 31st March 2026

There is a possibility that the great circle distance of the sea route between the European Union (EU) and Japan will be significantly shortened under this global warming. The new arctic sea route is emerging due to the ice meltdown. Although there are still various challenges to explore this route, it is demanded all the more than before now. 

The recent Middle Eastern incidence and the unstable political situation in South Asia may alert Japan and Europe to explore the alternative trade route. North American countries are focusing on the possibly high market potential in this Arctic route. On the top of the trade route between the EU and Japan, this area is essential for shipping the natural energy resources such as petrol oil and natural gas in this region. It is the common geopolitical interest for both the EU and Japan to secure the exploration of this trade route is necessary rather than expectation nowadays. 

Furthermore, we must not forget that the legal code of Japan has been based on the legal positivism of the continental Europe since the 19th century! The legal code of Japan is one of the examples backing up the proverb saying "All roads lead to Rome". Yes, the continental European legal code is originated from that of the Roman law. 

Japan also kept the exclusive trade tie with the Netherlands from the 17th to the 19th century. When Americans landed on Japan in the 19th century, Dutch was used as the intermediary language between American and Japanese individuals at their first encounters.  It might sound plausible Japan could closer to the EU than the USA in terms of this regard especially since the first arrival of Jesuits in the 17th century, 

Added on 1st April 2026

Of course, I know there are non-negligible drawbacks in this case scenario. First of all, the EU is heavily bureaucratic which frustrates individual habitants in their daily life as well as their economic and scientific activities. Secondly, their macroeconomic policy still faces the challenge which even the first governor of the European Central Bank (ECB) has pointed out. They have not fixed the problem of the fiscal policy under the European common monetary (EMU) policy while the characteristics of fiscal policy agents in the member states are still not harmonised enough. The aforementioned heavy frustrating bureaucracy tends to keep this kind of required reforms being slower than expected.

Originally written on 4-5th February 2023 

The followings are considered to be the conditions to join the European Union (EU) or any other possible economic and political union of countries/states. 

- Microeconomics:
  1. The high cross border trade (export and import) frequency
  2. The labour and capital mobility across the border

- Macroeconomics:
  3. The synchronised business cycle (boom and recession) among the member states
  4. The balanced fiscal policy neither disrupting the fiscal and monetary policy conducts nor depreciating the economic credibility of the entire union.

- The other aspects:
  5. Cultural and historic tie among the member states
  6. Geopolitical diplomatic interest

Japan fulfils these conditions except for the forth one because of the massive national debt of Japan. The second and third conditions might be questionable but they are not insignificant at all.

Remember that the foreign tourism is accounted as export&import!  The EU members and Japan trade not only physical items but also tourists a lot with each other. 

Also remember that Japan had had the international trade with Europeans more than the others since 17th century till the end of Shogunate era! In particular, during Tokugawa dynasty, lasting for approximately 300 years, the Netherlands was only the country which was permitted to trade with Japan implementing the national isolation. Before then, Spanish and Portuguese were the major diplomatic partners until they were banned from it. 

Both the EU and Japan very often share the remarkable foreign diplomatic and geopolitical interest. For example, both frequently suffer from Russian aggressions and the geopolitical interests of containing Russia. Both the EU and Japan are required to maintain their sea-lane for both economic and political stabilities so that they had better share their sea-lane and its security.

Thus, I have actually posted on a social network page of European Federalist to request Japan to join the EU to fill the membership position of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). 

PS. This is just a simulation which is not feasible in real so that please do not take this issue seriously.

 

 

 

 

 

Antwerp city hall and Historisch centrum , Belgium

 

Sketched Antwerp city hall and Historisch centrum , Belgium last Sunday

The European Monetary Union is inevitable, but has to be fundamentally revised

Published on 23/07/2011 09:18 British Summer Time

1. Introduction

This Eurozone crisis has been predicted by many economists. These economists put emphasis on the impact of the money supply volume on the stability of economic environments such as the price inflation rate, the unemployment rate, the gross domestic product (GDP), and the speculative trend on financial market. They argued that, when the monetary policy is unified, the common fiscal policy is also required to be established, all the member countries of this monetary union are supposed to have the financial regulation for all these countries, and the labour mobility needs to be flexible for workers in these member countries to move across these countries in order to stabilise the economic environments. In addition, the econometric analysis of the Eurozone average inflation rate indicated that the European Monetary Union (EMU) is beneficial to majority of the member countries owning to the harmonised inflation rate, but it still requires something to control the different inflation rate of each individual member country. The reason of German refusal of issuing Eurobond is assumed to be because of uncooperative attitudes of Greece. Mr. Trichet, the governor of the European Central Bank (ECB) also suggests that the EMU has to fundamentally change its overall structure before allowing any countries to keep incurring their debt. Overall, the solution of the currently ongoing Eurozone crisis is the fundamental improvement on the EMU fiscal, financial, and labour market structure, and getting rid of the common currency will never be a solution.


2. The problem caused by the monetary policy transformation

The disadvantage of abandoning the national monetary policy (to join the common monetary union) is that this country becomes no longer able to set her own interest rate and the volume of her own money supply. Greece used to be heavily relying on her own unique monetary policy, based on the money supply which was remarkably higher than the average of European countries, in order to finance her government expenditure which could not be sufficiently financed by her unsophisticated fiscal policy. However, after Greece joined the EMU, she could no longer use her high money supply. Greece may rely on the tax revenue burdened on her export revenue such as her tourist industry and the growth of her private sectors stimulated by the economic growth of the entire Eurozone economy. Nonetheless, unless she tightens her fiscal policy, when the entire Eurozone economy falls into recession and/or the demand of Greek tourist industry declines, Greece starts struggling to obtain her public finance resource. This problem has been seen in many Southern European Nations such as Italy, Spain, and Portugal. But, Greece seems to be more problematic than these Southern nations. Spanish government shows a strong commitment on tightening Spanish fiscal policy under the European central government’s induction. Italy still has her strong initiative in European economy thanks to her famous industries such as finance, manufacturing, and tourism. Portugal seems to be similar to Greece, but the quantitative data analysis shown in the next chapter indicates Portuguese suffers much less than Greece.




3. The econometric analysis of the Eurozone average inflation rate

This graph (Qualitative method) above shows the different inflation of the Eurozone countries (IMF, 2011). Majority of the Eurozone countries have a synchronised inflation rate trend from 2002 to 2010. The econometric analysis of the Eurozone average inflation rate, whose results are shown by the following figures, indicated that the price inflation of the individual countries joining the European Monetary Union (EMU) is influenced by the price inflation of the other different EMU countries.




This equation is the inflation rate of all individual Eurozone countries (〖Inflation〗_(i,t)) regressed on the inflation rate in the last year 〖Inflation〗_(i,t-1). As the coefficient of 〖Inflation〗_(i,t-1) is less than 1, this variable is stable enough to converge into a particular point in the long run as follows:




So, this proves that the Eurozone inflation rate is converging into 2% which is what the ECB targets to make! The following regression analysis proves that the GDP grows furthermore when the inflation rate becomes closer to 2%:




This result shows the natural log of the GDP in the Eurozone economy, ln⁡(〖GDP〗_(i,t) ) (Footnote 1.) , is significantly negatively correlated with the inflation rate deviating from 2% which is shown as the absolute number of the inflation rate minus 2, |〖Inf〗_(i,t)-2|. The following auxiliary regression shows both the GDP and the inflation are co-integrated each other:



〖 u〗_(i,t) is the residuals from the previous regression. As the lagged residuals 〖 u〗_(i,t-1) is negatively correlated with change in the residuals 〖∆u〗_(i,t), the variables used in the previous regression, ln⁡(〖GDP〗_(i,t) ) and |〖Inf〗_(i,t)-2|, are stable and co-integrated with the EU inflation rate, which means the movement of these variable affects on the other’s. However, the stability test for Greece and Ireland showed a relatively pessimistic result as follows:

Greek inflation on the inflation of the entire Eurozone countries



This analysis suggests that, , not only the percentage of the entire Eurozone inflation's contingency on Greek inflation rate is 47% in average, which is high,(Amended part) but also change Greek inflation is highly contingent to the entire Eurozone (Footnote 2.). Therefore, it is not only Greece suffers more than the other Eurozone countries and but also Greek economy is highly responsible on the entire Eurozone economy. This aspect may suggest both Greece and the entire Eurozone need to cooperate each other very seriously because Greece should not leave the EMU because her business cycle is already tied up with the EMU.

Irish inflation on the inflation of the entire Eurozone countries



On the other hand, Irish inflation rate is neither stable nor co-integrated with the entire Eurozone one. Therefore, Greece seems to suffer from the volatility of the inflation far more than the other Eurozone members so that she needs either the intervention by the European central government or the fiscal restructuration, or both, to calm down her inflation rate. Unlike Greece, Ireland may be benefitted when she leaves the EMU. Irish business cycle is not correlated with the Eurozone economy. But, if Ireland still wants to keep the membership, the Eurozone eventually needs to have a strong fiscal stimulus enough to enable Irish business cycle to harmonise with the entire Eurozone business cycle.

4. German refusal of participating into the Eurobond programme

The concern of Germany on Greece is that Greek catastrophic crisis will be permanent unless Greece tries to reform her fiscal policy fundamentally and cooperates with the EU central governmental policy rather than her own selfish and irrational nationalism. When a person purchases equity, s/he expects its value to be either stable in the long term or predicted to grow significantly. The value of Greek national debt seems to be neither stable in the long term nor predicted to increase its value in the short term. Even if German government is altruistic enough to sustain Greek public finance by purchasing Greek debt in order to rescue the entire Eurozone, there is a risk for Germany to be drawn into the recession or even to be bankrupt.
The Eurobond programme suggests the Eurozone countries to share both the risk and the benefit of issuing the government debts among the entire Eurozone countries rather than burdening the responsibility on each individual country for incurring the government debt. For example, as shown in the graph below, when Germany experiences the economic growth relatively higher than any other nations whilst France falls into the recession, it needs to tune the aggregate demand of both nations.


As there is no national monetary policy available for both France and Germany, one of the optimum solutions would be increasing the tax revenue of Germany to transfer it to subsidise France. The econometric analysis shown in the previous chapter indicates that French and German economies are highly contingent to each other so that French downturn has to be diverted by German contribution to save Germany herself. This is the idea of sharing the risk and benefit of the national debt and its usage under the collective responsibility among the countries.
Nonetheless, this mechanism may work efficiently and effectively because French fiscal policy does not have a problem like Greek. France and Germany have much more similar labour market situation than Greece. In addition, France and Germany are geographically closer each other than Greece. So, the labour mobility is much more flexible between France and Germany than between Greece and them. Furthermore, France and Germany balance their budget without relying on the excess money supply unlike Greece. If this case scenario were Greek instead of France, German tax revenue transfer to subsidise Greece is ineffective and inefficient.
The intervention from the European central government into Greek fiscal policy under the strict guideline of the central government is also emerged. Greece is still resisting against this intervention due to the sentimental irrational populist nationalism. The European central government regards that, in order to make this money transfer to Greece more effective and efficient, Greek fiscal reform lead by the further privatisation of the entire Greek economy are inevitably required. Greek labour market is rigid because of Greek economy’s reliance on the huge public sector, which disrupts the flexibility of the labour mobility. On the top of the inflexible labour mobility, Greek public sectors are not rational enough to balance their budget. They are not used to the market competition and the thread of bankruptcy because they are always protected by the nation unlike the private sectors. By contrast, the private sectors are much more used to balancing their budget under the market competition. As long as Greek public sectors struggle to rationalise their budget to be balanced by their own effort, the enforced privatisation seems to be only the antidote of the fiscal imbalance.
All in all, the responsibility of Greek fiscal policy should be burdened more on European central government to discourage Greek irrational populist nationalism which is notoriously uncooperative to solve this currently ongoing problem for both Greece herself and the entire Eurozone economy. In order to discourage this pathetic nationalism, the privatisation to minimise Greek national government authority can be a key solution before substituting the power of Greek nationalism with the European economic cooperation.


5. The ECB’s point of view and warning from Mr. Trichet

Focusing on the ECB’s point of view on the current Eurozone financial havoc, the ECB executives are suffering from the dilemma between putting priority on saving the Eurozone economy and focusing on calming the inflation by suggesting the fiscal policy of all Eurozone countries to be tightened. In particular, Mr. Trichet, the governor of the ECB, always rejects the optimism on the Eurobond programme without fundamentally reconstructing the fiscal structure in the entire Eurozone. Mr. Trichet has been always suspicious about the stability of the Eurozone economy since the ECB was established. His suspicion is related to the fiscal problem mentioned in the previous chapter.
The ECB has been purchasing a large volume of the national debt of the Eurozone countries by its quantitative easing. In order to keep the value of these bonds to invest to rescue these governments, the ECB has. The ECB cannot survive without an economic activity of these nations so that the ECB needs to save the national governments of the Eurozone. Otherwise, the value of Euro becomes zero so that the ECB itself disappears. However, the expected result still cannot be seen, and the aggregate government bonds incurred has never stopped expanding. This mechanism still enables the Euro exist, but it depreciates the value of Euro further. This phenomenon causes the inflation to hike up, and then the nominal interest rate eventually needs to rise. Overall, rescuing the Eurozone countries damages the private sectors and individual citizens by a high interest rate, and it creates further government deficit which requires the further ECB’s quantitative easing, which again induces a further inflation. Mr. Trichet has already warned this spiral would occur and urged to divert from it since the beginning of the Eurozone crisis (Footnote 3.). Thus, he rejects all the optimism of perpetuating this situation.
The ECB also struggles with negotiating with the private sectors. Although the previous chapter stated the positive aspect of the private sectors in terms of the fiscal policy, the private sectors cause problem in the monetary policy set by the ECB (Footnote 4.). The private sectors are willing to raise their profit and the wage for their executives, and detest the high interest rate. These characteristics of the private sectors perpetuate the inflation which discourages an economic growth of both countries and private sectors themselves in the long term. Generally speaking, the private sectors are uncooperative to the European economic stabilisation. Although the stabilised European economy which the ECB expects to establish benefits to the private sectors in the long term, these private sectors are less interested in it than the ECB.
This aspect infers a danger for European economy which is now also fund by the private sectors. This could be the reason why Mr. Trichet is modest about the private sector contribution to rescuing the Eurozone national economies .

6. Conclusion
In conclusion, there is no optimistic prospect on this current Eurozone economic situation. In order to solve these structural instabilities, the Eurozone may need a fundamental radical revolutionary act on altering both economic and political entire structure. But, they cannot stop the European economic integration because the almost all Eurozone economies are highly correlated with each other as proven by the econometric analysis. It seriously needs an IMF of Europe, which the ECB is trying to act like. The ECB should have a much stronger authority to instruct the fiscal policy of national governments in the Eurozone as same as the IMF does to the national governments in the globe. In addition, if the priority is saving the European economy, the heavy reliance on the private sectors contribution is very risky. Hence, the ECB policy based on Trichetian Monetarism, which is tough against the irrational egos of both the national government fiscal policy and the private sectors’ short-termism, seems to be only the reliable tool, and the economic agents had better listen to it.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Footnotes:

1. When a variable is positively skewed, it needs to be logged or transformed into the root (E.g. square root and cube root) in order to offer a reliable, unbiased, and consistent statistical analysis.

2.


---------------------
My Additional Comment added on 4th of August 2011:

Well, as I mentioned in my essay, it depends on the hamonisation of the business cycles in these candidate nations (I referred to the price inflation rate as an indicator of the business cycle). When the business cycle is harmonised (Synchronised), the monetary union becomes necessary or inevitable, such as the Greek and the other Eurozone countries' case. Otherwise, such as Irish case, it should not join the monetary union or it has to have a great intervention to artificially harmonise the cycles.

Some African nations might be benefited because they trade each other often, and their economy is not self-sustainable i.e. needs to be corroborated each other. But, they indeed need to have a common fiscal policy to modernise and tighten the fiscal policy of all these nations.

South American nations should not have the monetary union yet. These individual South American countries are too big by means of the land mass relative to their population density (I.e. The cost of the inter-country trade inside South America is higher than the benefit from it). Furthermore, these countries do not trade each other often compared to the other blocks of countries in this world such as Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia (According to the statistics shown in Economics of Monetary Union (Paul De Grauwe)).

The trade frequency of among Asian nations is the highest of all the international trade made in this world. So, as Lee Kuan Yew, the first Singaporean prime minister, said forming Asian trade community could benefit Asian nations. However, other than economic factors, the political factors exist as the obstacles which disrupt forming this trade community.

Only the person concerning the EMU whom I can truely respect and trust is Mr. Trichet and his ECB. I claim that not only the EMU national fiscal policies but also all the private enterprises in the Eurozone economy should be instructed by the ECB based on Trichetian Monetarism...!

The measurement against financial crisis with Prony's method (Matrix Pencil) --- Python _ _ _ Euphoria is way worse than uncertainty

 

I am now developing a precautionary measure against a potential financial crisis. This analysis of financial data adopts a signal analysis method. There is a research outcome claiming that the magnitude of a low frequency signal becomes higher than usual.

This property is related to Minsky's moment (over-speculation of the credit market as compared to the economic structural capacity). During the market overheat, financial markets become less volatile. In contrast, these markets become highly volatile after a sharp plunge after the over-expansion.

When financial markets suffer from an uncertainty, the volatility becomes higher. This implies that both the magnitude of signals with a high frequency becomes high. The volatile market looks worrying but it often maintains the long term stability (neither overheat nor plunging ). 

The over-speculation with a little volatile market induces a huge swing to the downfall. The short-term fluctuation (volatile market) somehow mitigates the long-term fluctuation. This seems to imply "Euphoria is way worse than uncertainty"!

The following is my Python code decomposing a financial time series following Prony-like Matrix Pencil Method (MPM) decomposition. For this experiment, the weekly foreign exchange rate of Euro based on US dollar (EUR/USD) is used. The MPM is implemented for each short-time window of the time domain (A window represent one year). Afterward, |imag(phi)|, representing the low-high frequency of a signal, is regressed on |real(alpha)|, representing the magnitude of this signal. At the end, the comparison between this correlation coefficients of |imag(phi)| and |real(alpha)| are compared with the exchange rate changes.

# These codes are furthermore developed from

# https://art-blue-liberalism.blogspot.com/2023/07/novel-econometric-method-short-time.html

# It has added the correlation coefficients of |imag(phi)| and |real(alpha)|

# to show that the amplitude of the low frequency signal rises one year before the market plunge

# Execute this cell to have access to the API of Frankfurter App

import requests

import json

# importing necessary tools

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

import matplotlib.gridspec as gridspec

import networkx as nx

import numpy as np

import pandas as pd

import random

import statistics

import scipy.linalg

from numpy import linalg as LA

from scipy.stats import qmc

from scipy.optimize import newton

from scipy import stats

import statsmodels.formula.api as sm

import math

import cmath

from scipy.linalg import hankel

import scipy.odr

from scipy import odr

# For plotting with multiple axis with different scales

# https://stackoverflow.com/questions/9103166/multiple-axis-in-matplotlib-with-different-scales

from mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 import host_subplot

import mpl_toolkits.axisartist as AA

# Showing the plots bigger

plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (18,9)

# defining imaginary number

i=complex(0,1)

# Connecting to the API https://www.frankfurter.app/docs/ to get the EUR/USD rates

url = "http://api.frankfurter.app/1999-01-01.."

resp = requests.get(url,{'to':'USD'})

#print(resp.url)

#print(resp.status_code)

#print("Type:", type(resp.content))

#print(resp.content)

print("Type:", type(resp))

# Preparing for the right encoding

import ast

byte_str = resp.content

dict_str = byte_str.decode("UTF-8")

mydata = ast.literal_eval(dict_str)

print("Type:", type(mydata))

EURUSD=(mydata["rates"])

#EURUSD

# Sorting the data into the Python dictionary form

Dates_EURUSD=[]

Rates_EURUSD=[]

for key, value in EURUSD.items():

    Dates_EURUSD.append(key)

    for k,v in value.items():

        Rates_EURUSD.append(v)

EURUSD=dict(zip(Dates_EURUSD,Rates_EURUSD))

#EURUSD

#Rates_EURUSD

# Converting the rate to natural logarithm

ln_Rates_EURUSD=np.log(Rates_EURUSD)

ln_Rates_EURUSD

#plt.plot(ln_Rates_EURUSD)

### Defining the function for plotting a signal processing model ###

# Assuming the sampling rate used for reconstructing the signal processing model

M=100

# f_syn: samples used by Prony's methhod

def OMEGA(n):

    _2n_1=(2*n-1)+1

    omega = [2*math.pi/M*(_0__2n_1) for _0__2n_1 in range(_2n_1)]

    return omega

#omega=OMEGA(n)

#omega

# Defining the function generating a time series variable

# based on the given alpha s, phi s, and the time denoted as the small omega

def syn_exp(amp,freq,x):

    t=len(amp)

    y=[]

    for omg in range(len(x)):

        yi=0

        for ap in range(len(amp)):

            yi+=amp[ap]*cmath.exp(freq[ap]*x[omg])

        y.append(yi)

    return y

# plot the real part of the signal

def plot_signal(amp,freq,x,StartDate):

    Mrend = 2*math.pi;

    Mint = math.pi/2;

    t=np.linspace(0, Mrend, 10000)

    M=len(t)

    x= [2*math.pi/M*(_0__2n_1) for _0__2n_1 in range(len(t))]

    F=syn_exp(amp,freq,x)

    F_real=[F[k].real for k in range(len(x))]

    plt.plot(F_real,label=StartDate)

    plt.title("Comparison of the signal frequencies of the time domain windows")

    plt.xlabel("'pi/2'_______________'pi'_______________'3pi/2'_______________'2pi'")

    plt.ylabel('Signal: real part')

    plt.legend()

    plt.show

    return F

# Plotting with defined alpha, phi, and omega (steps)

# plot_signal(alpha,phi,omega,0,-1,"Title")

###### Main Short-Time Prony Transform ######

# Defining the time series F

F=ln_Rates_EURUSD

#F=Rates_EURUSD

n=len(F)

N=len(F)

print("Length of data:",n)

# Number of the windows

Interval=52 # Dont' change!!

Cut=0

Windows=math.floor(n/Interval)

print('Number of the windows:',Windows)

# Creating lists for parameters of Prony's methods

DateStart_List=[]

DateEnd_List=[]

alpha_list=[]

phi_list=[]

# Creating lists for the comparison between the correlation coefficients

# of |imag(phi)| and |real(alpha)| and the price level

Year_s=[]

f_anu_avrg_s=[]

correlcoeff_s=[]

for w in range(Windows-1):

#for w in range(1):

    #print('Date starts:',Dates_EURUSD[Cut],'  Date ends:',Dates_EURUSD[Cut+Interval])

    DateStart_List.append(Dates_EURUSD[Cut])

    DateEnd_List.append(Dates_EURUSD[Cut+Interval])

    Year_s.append(Dates_EURUSD[Cut][:4])

   

    # Extracting ln(price) for this year from the entire list

    f=F[Cut:Cut+Interval].copy()

   

    # Calculating anual average of the natural-log the rate

    # for the later comparison

    f_anu_avrg=statistics.mean(f)

    # Recording the annual average rate in the list to use

    # for the comparison later

    f_anu_avrg_s.append(f_anu_avrg)

    #display(f_anu_avrg_s)

   

    Cut=Cut+Interval+(1-math.ceil(((w+1)%5)/1000))

    # subtract the last week data once 5 years to make sure it starts from a beginning of the calendar

    #plt.plot(f)

    n=len(f) # number of exponentials

   

    d=(int(len(f)/2-len(f)%2*0.5)) # Subtracting the remainder if it is an odd number

   

    # Creating Hankel matrix which is needed to

    def mat_ge(samples):

        n_samples = len(samples)

        d = int(n_samples/2)

        H0=hankel(samples[0:-1])[0:d,0:d]

        H1=hankel(samples[1:])[0:d,0:d]

        return H0, H1

    H0, H1 =mat_ge(f)

    H=(H0,H1)

    for h in range(len(H)):

        x=H[h]

        #panda_df = pd.DataFrame(data = x)

        #display(panda_df)

       

    # Finding the Eigenvalue

    E= scipy.linalg.eig(H0, H1)[0]

    #panda_df_E = pd.DataFrame(data = E)

    #display(panda_df_E)

   

    V=np.transpose(np.vander(E, N=None, increasing=True))

    #panda_df_V = pd.DataFrame(data = V)

    #display(panda_df_V)

   

    # Calculating the coefficient alpha s with the matrix pencil method (MPM)

    # Compute the amplitudes (coefficients) by the mldivide V\f[d:]=A

    if len(f[d:])!=d:

        Adj=1

    else:

        Adj=0

   

    ######## Recovering alphas #######

   

    ###### For Jupyter Notebook ######

    #A=LA.solve(V.real, f[d+Adj:]) # Only pick the real part of V matrix! # Length?

    #alpha_rep=A

    #alpha=alpha_rep.tolist()

   

    ###### For google colaboratory ######

    A=LA.solve(V, f[d:])

    #alpha_rep=A.real  

    alpha_rep=A

    alpha=alpha_rep.tolist()

       

   

    # Recovering phi s by transforming the eigenvalues to their natural logarithm

    # phi is the power of the exponential which is the complex number  

    # phi s represent the frequency of this signal

    # frequencies and damping factors

    phi_rep = [(cmath.log(E[t])) for t in range(len(E))] # .imag shows only the imaginary part

    phi=phi_rep

   

    # Removing relatively less significant alphas and phis

   

    # Adjust this number of terms to recover.

    NumTerms=NumTerms # Define number of terms to recover # Adjust here!

   

    for l in range(len(alpha_rep)-NumTerms):

        abs_alpha=[abs(alpha[k]) for k in range(len(alpha))]

        #print(abs_alpha.index(min(abs_alpha)))

        #print(alpha[abs_alpha.index(min(abs_alpha))])

        alpha.pop(alpha.index(alpha[abs_alpha.index(min(abs_alpha))]))

        phi.pop(phi.index(phi[abs_alpha.index(min(abs_alpha))]))

        abs_alpha.pop(abs_alpha.index(min(abs_alpha)))

    #display(alpha)

    #display(phi)

   

    ### The process for generating the correlation coefficients

    ###  between |imag(phi)| and |real(alpha)|

   

    # Imaginary part of phis

    abs_Im_phi=[abs(phi[k].imag) for k in range(len(phi))]

    #display("|Imag(phi)|",abs_Im_phi)

    # Real part of alphas

    abs_Re_alpha=[abs(alpha[k].real) for k in range(len(alpha))]

    #display("|Real(alpha)|",abs_Re_alpha)    

   

    # Calculating the correlation coefficient of between |imag(phi)| and |real(alpha)|

    correlcoeff=np.corrcoef(abs_Im_phi,abs_Re_alpha)[0][1]

    # Add the correlation coefficient of this year to the list

    correlcoeff_s.append(correlcoeff)

    #display(correlcoeff_s)

   

    ### For plotting signals

    ## Showing the plots bigger

    #plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (20,10)

    ## Plotting with defined alpha, phi, and omega (steps)

    #omega=OMEGA(n)

    #plot_signal(alpha,phi,omega,Dates_EURUSD[Cut])

   

    # Add the list

    #alpha_list.append(alpha)

    #phi_list.append(phi)

## Plotting a graph comparing the correlation coefficients

## of |imag(phi)| and |real(alpha)| and the price level

#f_anu_avrg_s

d_f_anu_avrg_s=[0]

for k in range(1,len(f_anu_avrg_s)):

    d_f_anu_avrg_s.append((f_anu_avrg_s[k]-f_anu_avrg_s[k-1]))

#display("ln(Rate_t)-ln(Rate_t-1)","length",len(d_f_anu_avrg_s),d_f_anu_avrg_s)

#display("Correl_phi_alpha","length",len(correlcoeff_s),correlcoeff_s)

#display("Year","length",len(Year_s),Year_s)

## Plottting graph with multiple y-axis with different labels

# https://stackoverflow.com/questions/9103166/multiple-axis-in-matplotlib-with-different-scales

host = host_subplot(111, axes_class=AA.Axes)

plt.subplots_adjust(right=0.75)

par1 = host.twinx()

par2 = host.twinx()

YLabelL="ln(EURUSD(Current Year))-ln(EURUSD(Previous Year))"

YLabelR="Correlation Coefficient of |imag(phi)| and |real(alpha)|"

VariableL=d_f_anu_avrg_s

VariableR=correlcoeff_s

host.set_xlabel("Year")

host.set_ylabel(YLabelL)

par1.set_ylabel(YLabelR)

p1, = host.plot(Year_s, VariableL, label=YLabelL)

p2, = par1.plot(Year_s, VariableR, label=YLabelR)

host.legend()

host.axis["left"].label.set_color(p1.get_color())

par1.axis["right"].label.set_color(p2.get_color())

plt.draw()

plt.xticks(rotation='vertical')

plt.show()

 

 

 

Long life

 The life expectancy of human individuals in the world has significantly extended so these individuals will eventually tend to live up to 100 years old or beyond unless there is any unexpected accident threatening their life happening before then. At the same time, more individuals nowadays tend to complain about their lack of opportunities for increasing their income gain, improving their career path, and offering a reasonably satisfactory future for the next generation. Mediocrity, misery, and hopelessness are haunting their life even longer than the past. Have these individuals become happier with their longer life expectancy? Let's consider it. 

Focusing on the retiring age, many countries used to set it as 60 years old while some countries have extended it to 65 or even 70. Up to the middle of the last century, many workers died off before turning to be 70 years old, so they claimed to spare their leisure time left before their death after their retirement. By contrast, their time left left after their retirement is almost 3 decades which are way too long to spare for their joblessness. The pension scheme is no longe sustainable to prop up the budget for looking after these jobless elder individuals. The budget incapability is derived from not only the increasing elderly population but also the shrinking fertility rate of the newer generations. 

The technological development is so superb nowadays that many firms and a few fortunate elite individuals enjoy their microeconomic advantages. At the same time, the entire world economy is shifting toward the capital intensive rather than the labour intensive which implies that the labour demand i.e., employment is shrinking. Furthermore, the opportunity of improving their income and career path requires more demanding skill-sets and merit for firms to hire them with a reasonable wage. Recently, the certain degree of the equality of outcome for individuals is more essential to accomplish the equality of opportunity than it used to be.  However, the socioeconomic policies of the current world are still neither competent nor generous enough to offer such an opportunity for majority individuals. 

The fertility rate is dropping down in majority of developed countries. Even though these residents enjoy their surrounding physical resources of their national economy, the distribution of their access is restricted. The main cause is that the inequality of their disposable income and their social mobility opportunity is expanding due to the shrinking macroeconomic market multiplier. Therefore, their desperation for their future prevents them from bearing their offspring, and they struggle to escape from their own mediocrity and desperation. 

In addition to the physical life expectancy expansion, the psychological feeling of life has become longer for the majority world citizens lacking the opportunity to access the lucrative lifestyle. These individual citizens may find their life is indeed longer than the minority elites enjoying their lucrative lifestyle. They feel like spending longer time to pass when human individuals spend their time spend as boring, miserable, and/or painful than when they spend it exciting, attractive, and/or pleasantly instead. Therefore, the tittle is simply "Long life" to think of what the "long" of the "long" life implies. 

Economic policies should exist to make the majority individuals happy while ensuring that even the least fortunate members of their society enjoy the basic civil cultural standard of living. It is not a matter of different economic policy perspectives. Regardless of supporting the market economy or the collectivist economy, the objective taking the whole environments where individuals cooperate to cohabit in a civic society into consideration must exist. Otherwise, there is no raison d'etre of the study of economics. 

In addition, everyone must be proactive enough to adjust themselves to the new paradigm of this world without being restrained by the obsolete norms and values. Many individuals still believe in or are forced to adapt to these obsolete norms and values having existed in the early past of the last century. Neither company nor government will guarantee their job and income security due to the aforementioned factors. So, they must not be reactive to what their belonging institutes such as companies and government direct them. Instead, they has better continuously look for a better opportunity for a new employment, going back to schooling, or sparing some free time to re-think of their own life philosophy. 

In liberal-democratic countries, the majority individual citizens still have their own responsibility of electing their own governmental party allowing the elite bureaucrats ignoring these previously mentioned factors. Perhaps, they are still enlightened enough to understand their own life situation well. It is often important to be more egoistic to protect themselves to realise such factors. When a person cannot make her/himself happy, this person cannot deserve the others well.  They key is the positive energy flow of one person energising her/him to enable her/him to entertain and help the others.

The government and the corporations taking the initiative in the market economy take an advantage of it by forsaking the majority citizens. Thus, these individual citizens are ought to be angry and more selfish to insist on their needs and wants without being restraint by the altruistic norms and values. In addition, they should be egoistic also to be honest for themselves without compromising their own desires and dreams even if the others disagree or become excessively being worried about this attitude. Hence, the most ostensible, practical, and simple answer to solve this problem is to "Live your own life" regardless of its physical or psychological length of life.