Parsee Mizuhashi in Touhou Project with A wedding dress costume

 

Another June bride season special!

I have drawn a wedding dress costume of Parsee Mizuhashi as per request.

Her original clothing design is reflected to this dress design.

My pixiv page: https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/119414496

A wedding dress costume of Dai-Tengu Megumu Iizunamaru for the June bride season!

 

A wedding dress costume of Dai-Tengu Megumu Iizunamaru for the June bride season! "Be my Waifu!"

My pixiv page: https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/119358242

 

 

The scene Aya Shameimaru is calling Daitengu Megumu Iizunamaru in The Memories of Phantasm, Touhou Project

 

Posted on https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Of-ycmiORQY

Touhou Project, The Memories of Phantasm, Episode 14, Aya Shameimaru contacting her Daitengu boss: This Daitengu boss must be Megumu Iizunamaru! 

* Voice of Megumu Iizunamaru is Yukkuri voice * 

This illustration is a redrawn version by ChatGPT, inspired by the original artwork found at  https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/119268321

 

My pixiv page: https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/119267886

I added Iizunamaru-sama talking on this scene of The Memories of Phantasm (Touhou Project Fan-Art Animation). 4:56-5:10 of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3icb9K77E44&t=307s

The supervisor Aya Shameimaru speaking to must be Megumu Iizunamaru!

"Shut-up Shameimaru!" is the signature phrase of Megumu Iizunamaru in Obaniwan-channel https://www.youtube.com/@obaniwan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUe4aet6w0o...

 

This is the scene of an anime plus my imagination. This anime was released in 2010 whereas Megumu firstly appeared in 2021 in Touhou18. The supervisor Daitengu whom Aya is speaking to via this retro phone must be Megumu!
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Council of Five Elders, Touhou Project

 

Illustrated the Council of Five Elders in Gensokyo 幻想郷の東方五大老

My pixiv page: https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/119080533

Painting Tool and Background-Image: CLIP STUDIO PAINT

ARCH, GARCH, and ARIMA

 

Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH)

ARCH was developed by an economist Robert F. Engle III having won the 2003 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for its achievement.

Dependent variable: the variance error terms of the first regression:

The explanatory variable X can be the lagged dependent variables and/or the other variables: 

Then, it find the coefficient γ of the lagged squared error terms with reference to the log-likelihood: 

 

Generalised Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH)

GARCH assumes the variance of the error term symmetrically varies depending the average size of the error terms in pervious time steps. It adds the lagged variance on the explanatory variable of the second regression with reference to the log-likelihood for finding the coefficients γ and δ:

 

Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA)

Another popular auto-regressive method (AR) + Integrated differences (I) + moving-averaging (MA). 

Ref.: https://people.duke.edu/~rnau/411arim.htm 

Integrated (I): Using the differentiating a non-stationary time series to attempt to transform it to a stationary series. 

Moving-Average (MR) model: Using the past forecasted error terms instead of the lags of the dependent variable. 

 Limitation of these AR methods

Ref. Modeling daily realized futures volatility with singular spectrum analysis    Dimitrios D. Thomakosa, Tao Wanga, Luc T. Willeb; ∗ Received 29 November 2001 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(02)00845-2

Limited as the forecasting model: Whereas it provides the magnitude of the fluctuations e.g., volatility, their distribution is assumed to be symmetric. The error of the estimation expands for the future estimate

The coefficients of the lagged variable contain non-periodic noise terms, which disrupt the estimation of the important periodicities represented by these coefficients.

SSA and Prony-like methods can extract the cyclical physical components that contain important information about the periodicity and its magnitude by distinguishing them from the noise components.

SSA performs better than various auto-regressive methods and Hodrick-Prescott filter (Noise-filtering method) introduced in "Singular spectrum analysis for real-time financial cycles
measurement   Maximilien Coussin 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102532"

 

Posted on my pixiv page: https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/118883923

The epic battle scene of Sanae Kochiya (Shrine Maiden) Vs Byakuren Hijiri (Bhikkhuni) in 東方星蓮船: Touhou 12

The scene 33:55 of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SW9u-JF19-A&t=2036s

Byakuren Hijiri saying "付和雷同" to Sanae in Touhou 12: This is the moment that a well-determined Bhikkhuni preaching a zealous Shinto shrine maiden blindly following her master (Kanako in her case). lol

さなぱい対ひじぱい: La bataile epique des seins epiques.

Byakuren is condemn for Sanae's attitude and philosophy of blindly following Kanako: I am trying to depict Sanae's peril of facing Byakuren's attack by means of both physical and mental aspects.