Mr. Rishi Sunak will well remain in the history of Macroeconomics for his Hawkishness

It is a surprise to see such a Hawkish Chancellor of Exchequer after a decade of the Dovish regime in the world economic policy.  Mr. Rishi Sunak is certainly brave while being a little bit reckless.  It is certainly brave to reveal such a tough Hawkish characteristic . He puts emphasis on his prudent attitude toward balancing the budget. Even under the still anticipated downturn with a still remaining strong anxiety, he is willing to increase the overall taxation (generally slowing down economy) to balance the budget.  He claimed that, failure of balancing the budget eventually results in the rise of both the price inflation and the interest rate for bonds and mortgages is certainly alarming for economy.  

Regarding the usage of the term Hawk and Dove, it does not refer to diplomatic and military policies.  This term is uniquely used in macroeconomic policies related to neither diplomacy nor military.  In terms of macroeconomics, Hawk is tough and prudent whilst Dove is tolerant and loose.  It sounds similar to diplomatic and military policies but the implemented channels and the targets for setting these policies are different and unique in economics. Both have advantages and disadvantages.

Hawks are intolerant towards the enemies of the macroeconomic environmental stability such as the high price inflation (devaluing the income value and disturbs financial planning) and the rumour of distrust from investors and foreign exporters&importers.   They put emphasis on eliminating the root causes of the instability by tightening controls over balanced budgets and setting the central interest rate relatively high enough (plotting to consequently lower the high interest rate and stabilise the real income value). 

Doves are on the other hand tolerant for using loose policies to save individuals and their economic environment from the hardships (such as unemployment and lack of rescuing resources) even with some expected negative side effects.  They frequently claim for need of the looseness because the overall benefit covers the cost incurred by the negative side effect, and it should take place temporarily at least.   

Both are equally good as well as bad because both have disadvantages indeed. Hawks are remarkably unpopular during the unexpected economic downturn because Hawkish austerity is possible to be tough also on majority individuals suffering from the downturn, and then is likely to delay the recovery from the downturn.  Doves are blamed for their speculative projections often underestimating the cost of their policies so it is likely to misjudge of the timing of both imposing and cancelling their loose policies, and then their tolerance contains the high contingent risk of losing the administrative capability. 

Focusing on what Mr. Rishi Sunak is attempts to put into practice, he manages his policies by handing the fiscal policy-channels such as increasing tax rates to increase the inland revenue to reduce the national debt and various bond interest rates. He promises to consequently protect British citizens' income from either the high mortgage interest rate, the high price inflation, and lack of foreign investments with this policy implementation.  

The fiscal policy-channels are able to tune the different tax rate for various targeted segments of economic. Nonetheless, the fiscal policy always contains the mis-selection of the target sectors to increase the tax rate causing the systemic risk collapsing economy caused by penalising the certain sector's performance interrelated to many of the others. This Sunakian fiscal policy is expected to effectively handled to hopefully induce the positive aftermath.    

Mr. Sunak's policy is neither misguided nor irrational.  There are many worthy qualities accountable for encouraging the sustainable robust British economy. Especially, this seems to function for keeping the value of Great British Pound Sterling and secure the trust in the capital market and the foreign trades. Furthermore, his policy takes account of ordinary majority British citizens for securing their future real income value.  At the same time, the biggest concern is to determine whether or not this is the right moment to be tough as Hawk meanwhile the popularity of the looseness is still enthusiastically supported by the mass.

Having analysed these aforementioned aspects, Mr. Rishi Sunak's Hawkishness is neither absolutely good nor absolutely bad; but it is yet controversial.  Only the future might be able to provide the convincing appropriate judgement over his policy-aftermath.

GBP/USD is now 1.40 on 22nd February, 2021!!!

Hey! Cannae believe that GBP/USD is soaring as such!! 😮 Many investment banks indicated this is because of the effect of the newly distributed vaccine. ... I am still sceptical about the improvement of economic activity because it is really difficult to think that Brexit has induced such a rapid short term recovery (though it might be plausible to say Brexit does in the relatively longer term)! Well, this is a really tricky moment to forecast. Although some investment banks have predicted GBP/USD to be around 1.42, Bank of England still alludes possibly implementing a negative interest rate causing to depreciate GBP value at least for a short run.

Valkyrie/Walkure, 01 Jan, 2021

Dear all, Happy New Year!  I wish all the best for all of you visiting my blog! This is my first painting of this year.  I am going to practice using CLIP STUDIO PAINTING PRO more to get accustomed with this PC painting tool. 

The year 2021 will be still a challenging time period.  I am kind of feeling like wanting to become an invincible fighter with an unconquerable mind to overcome from these hardships.  The protection of gorgeous Walkure is believed to be complementary for those who fight against the hardship, isn't it. At least, it can be something to want to seek.

 

 

 

 

 

with different background

 

 

 

Scottish Soldier: Comic-Tones

 

Tittle: Scottish Soldier. One of my current experiments of using CLIP STUDIO PAINT PRO. The comic-style with tones is tested at this time.

Market talks!

 

This is the FX chart today based on USD/EUR during these 5 days. It shows how market react to the outcome of the current significant events such as the outcome of the US election. Market is like an unimaginably complex computer which spontaneously calculates how demand and supply shift by means of needs and wants. Nowadays, not only banks and investors but also manufacturing companies of both major and small-medium sized participate in FX trades for financing their business. Therefore, market movements are really honest to instantly reflect the opinion of majority of economic agents reacting to the ongoing events and some events' aftermaths. It is completely up to your freedom of choice for what you think any way.

Transit from Dec. 2020 to Jan. 2021, The dramatic change in Finance, Politics, and Technology will start taking place.

 * This analysis is based on an astrology so please kindly note that these following assumptions are not quite scientific and objective, and the variance of the error is significantly big.  Thanks for your attention.

The inner cycle denotes the transitory chart of December, 2020 and the outer cycle denotes the transitory chart of January 2021. 

The notoriously critical triple conjunction of Jupiter, Saturn, and Pluto has continued from the beginning of 2020 to now, and will continue until 2021 comes.  Saturn temporarily left this conjunction in June, 2020, but came back there. In addition, when Saturn returned to the triple conjunction in the ascendant of Capricorn, Mars started crossing the ascendant of Aries, his own sign, and formed the square with that heavy triple conjunction.  

This means that, the critical world socio-structural change started taking place in the beginning of 2020, and the aftermath effect has been perpetuated after both Saturn's return and Mars' own sign with their square.  This seems to imply that the effect of ongoing wars against Corona-virus (COVID-19) and the fatal world socio-structural crises are being perpetuated together while this conjunction.

At the same time, Jupiter and Neptune (Together represents the financial well-being) has been forming a reasonably soft form, sextile, while this ultra hard aspect.  This may indicate that the quantitative easing (QE) by various central banks in this world have propped up the other capital market such as the stock market. 

 

On the other hand, both Jupiter and Saturn are passing away from the conjunction with Pluto crossing the ascendant of Capricorn meanwhile Mars is also finish crossing the ascendant of Aries.  Then, Jupiter and Saturn start crossing the ascendant of the first degree of Aquarius together.  At the same time, Mars starts forming a conjunction with Uranus crossing the ascendant of Taurus.  

 Remember that Taurus (Wealth and Stability) is a detrimental sign for Uranus (Innovation and Spontaneity).   He forms a symbol of strife, Mars, and then form a square with Jupiter (Expansion and Wealth) and Saturn (Responsibility and Order&Stability), both of which represent a socio-structure.  Even though these two structural symbols are overcoming from the conjunction with a symbol of fatality, Pluto, it looks like approaching a sudden drastic change in the world. 

However, although the sextile of Jupiter and Neptune is cancelled off after this December, it does not mean to induce a hard aspect of them just after then.  The end of the QE does not necessarily induce the hard situation.  It may be hard for some such as those who cling to taking advantage of the status quo. (Jupiter and Saturn together just go away from the ascendant of Capricorn)  We will need to find a new innovative and relatively riskier way not relying on static authority and norm. (Jupiter and Saturn start crossing the ascendant of Aquarius together while forming a square with the conjunction of Mars and Uranus which is crossing the ascendant of his detrimental sign Taurus)

Perhaps, we will see some sort of a solid answer or a solution for tackling against COVID-19 in the beginning of 2021 although some negative side effect remaining in the world.  At the same time, the central banks will stop pouring their excess money supply into the world financial market, and the sharp economic downturn, which has been postponed by the QE programme, will suddenly emerge.  The suddenness and sharpness are represented by the sudden change in the chart pattern just within one month as shown above.  

 

The chart formation from January, 2021 also seems to introduce the prelude of the new era of Pluto starting to cross the ascendant of Aquarius after passing away from the ascendant of Capricorn because both the socio-structural symbols Jupiter and Saturn are simultaneously crossing the ascendant of Aquarius after passing away of Capricorn.  

While Pluto is crossing the ascendant of Capricorn, the vertical relationship of human-beings such as the existence of nations and enterprises is fatally challenged.  By contrast, while Pluto is crossing the ascendant of Aquarius, the horizontal relationship of human-beings such as the form of the relationship with the others and the entire society itself is fatally challenged.  

Furthermore, this drastic transition is also about the shift from earth (subjective feminine) to wind (objective masculine).  The emotional whim by populism and patriotist sentiment have been dominant recently whilst the more dry pragmatic sense will start replace it at a very fast pace in coming years.  The recent development of information technologies and artificial intelligence will be accelerated furthermore, and dry rational pragmatism will frequently override emotionality and caring-sentiment.  We must be prepared for everything as fast as possible because this transformation of the world is rapid as well as dramatic...!