ABL Futurism

I always write about analyses on events in past and present because most of these analyses are about history related to socioeconomics, daily political events, and statistics (may infer future events although the inference is derived from past and present).  Nowadays, majority individuals seem to be tired of knowing various upsetting or even depressing present events, and knowing past events hardly guide to overcome from the recent unforeseen events to anticipate optimistic future outcomes.

At this time, this essay attempts to demonstrate the imagination of the future world structure.  It is simply an imagination not derived from my own analytic tools, and I am not an expert of astrophysics basing the design of futurism.  Therefore, this content is indeed an amateur work so hope the readers tolerate this amateurism. Nevertheless, this attempt based on my amateur-imagination might hint some productive idea-formation in my field of expertise socio-economics.   

This discourse about the imaginary future of the human civilisation is mainly based on the Kardashev scale distinguishing the civilisation development level into several types.  For example, the type I civilisation enables a civilisation to harness the entire energy of and control the entire atmosphere of their own planet; the type II civilisation does of their entire-solar system they are living in; and the type III civilisation expands this scale to the entire galaxy their solar system is located in. 

The current Earthian civilisation is considered to be the type 0.74 in terms of Kardashev scale.  The step starts from the rough proposal to develop the civilisation from this current level to the further, and it covers the brief imaginary strategy to evolve from the below type I to the point when it reaches to type II.

 

1. Evolving toward the type I civilisation while colonising the Moon and some asteroids 

Human individuals are ought to stabilise their living environment more than nowadays in order to develop their civilisation level beyond this state.  They are still prone to various unforeseen natural and political disasters hindering the development.  

The entire world cooperation will be mandatory to induce such a scenario so the political and socio-economic consensus among the entire human individuals living in this world will be the crucial key to implement it. At the same time, this cooperative unification must not invade personal liberty of these human individuals in order to maintain their happiness and the innovative free thinkings.  This is also crucial to encourage the members to voluntarily input their productivity and provide some innovations to research and develop this enormous plan. 

On the top of this aforementioned condition, the abundant physical material resources must be obtained.  The earth itself may not be enough to extract this amount of resources to raise the human civilisation up to the type I. In particular, various kinds of high-tech equipment require a multitude of rare metals which are more abundant in the Moon and asteroids floating in the solar system. 

Firstly, asteroid-mining might be demanded faster than colonising the Moon in order to obtain the already scarce rare-metals.  The artificial intelligence (AI) will be applied to remotely control the asteroid catcher launched into the space.  

There are various unique methods to reach the Moon.  The conventional method is rocketing a space-shuttle, which exhausts chemical resources and energy.  As the Moon expedition requires not only launching materials and various equipment machineries but also sending actual humans to the Moon via the space travel.  This process has to be far more efficient than completely relying on the energy inefficient conventional rocketing method in order to prevent the substantial environmental damage on the Earth.  

While capturing some asteroid and colonising the Moon, it is expected for the human civilisation to be developed to reach the fully type I by taking an advantage of the material development and the political cooperation.  They are expected to realise that their cooperation with more available material resources may enable their capacity to evolve their civilisation level.  

In addition, colonising the Moon to establish the stable moon-base is useful not only as a mining base for the resource mine but also as a transfer station for the further expedition toward the solar system.  At this point, humans become able to make a good use of resources from both the intraterrestrial and the extraterrestrial area within the circle of the Lagrange points where the Moon rotates around the Earth.  

On the other hand, the human population and the human-individuals' desire will expand further than things will be available at that point.  In order to avoid their conflict for limited resources and limiting both their mind and their available capacity, they will need to endeavour to evolve their civilisation beyond what is available in the Earth and her orbital satellites. Then, their expedition expands to the solar system. 

 

2. Terraforming Mars and Venus

Mars is the most notable candidate for the future immigration destination for humans by colonising it in an extra-terrestrial field.  The Moon is not capable enough to prop up the continuously growing human-population and civilisation scale. However, the colonisation process proposed here is different from many pioneers' proposal: Instead of launching capital equipment and humans directly onto Mars such as being done onto the Moon, the discourse here manifestos to completely terraform Mars by recovering the atmosphere which disappeared in the past.

In this proposal, Mars is treated not merely as some substation like the Moon and a big asteroid; It regards of Mars as a backup planet of the Earth where humans permanently station to live by breathing air, utilising water resources, and bringing in plants and animals from the Earth in the atmospheric environment. 

Reviving the atmosphere requires increasing the magnetic wave produced from Martian core.  The magnetic wave from a rocky planet's core protects the planet's atmosphere from the intense solar radiation destroying the atmosphere. When the substantially weakened magnetism, the atmosphere in the past was once stripped off by the solar radiation.  Therefore, strengthening the magnetic wave is essential. 

For the time being, there is no technological invention achieving to increase the magnetic wave from the planet's core so it assumes this technology will be invented in the future.   When this technology is invented and enough material and financial resources are prepared for, a set of the megastructure will be built based on this technology.  In order to strengthen Martian magnetism, these megastructures will be launched onto the Martian Lagrange points, L1 and L2, rotating around Mars.   They are assume to offer the mechanism of strengthening the magnetism from outside Mars on these Lagrange points.

When the magnetism is strengthened enough to sustain the atmosphere, the positive cycle of floating gas in Mars is assumed to emerge.  At this moment, carbon-dioxide (CO2) is trapped as a form of dry-ice.  When the atmosphere appears and the heat from sunlight remains in it, CO2 is expected to flow inside the atmosphere.  Then, Martian atmosphere will be warned up.

The huge deposit of water-ice is buried under Martian soil.  When the aforementioned atmosphere starts offering a warmer temperature, the ice will melt to produce water.  Then, oceans and rivers of water are expected to emerge.  Afterward, there will be a multitude of implemented methods to create oxygen, implant Earthian vegetations, etc. 

Terraforming and colonising Mars is important not only for duplicating the Earthian environment but also establishing the transfer station for Jupiter expedition.  They will need a significantly huge amount of hydrogen to extract from Jupiter for the next mission, terraforming Venus to colonise.  In particular, on the way to reach the type II civilisation (colonising the entire solar system), this potential of colonising Venus will be helpful to increase human-resources and to proceed the expedition to Mercury and Sun.

Venus, another rocky planet whose size is close to Earth, is another useful planet to terraform to enable human-habitation.  Venus has already contain her atmosphere despite its completely inhabitable condition.  Nonetheless, it is worth considering to take advantage of this already existing atmosphere.  

In order to transform this bizarre Venusian, a massive amount of hydrogen possibly extracted from Jupiter and/or Saturn will be bombarded into Venusian atmosphere filled with CO2.  The chemical reaction with CO2 and hydrogen is expected to produce oxygen and then water.  

Afterward, the next step is to shield Venus from the extreme sun heat and modifying the oddly long daylight time by installing some megastructure.  At that moment of technology, this will only matter of resources and motivation as the technology capable to achieve will be already available then.

During this process, when the situation becomes more or less controllable by humans, they will build a bunch of floating fortress shaped like a blimp to station inside there.  Unlike Venusian surface below her atmosphere at the pre-terraforming period, the temperature of the inside atmosphere above the surface is considered to be habitable.  

The next step will be the journey toward Mercury to construct the enormous factory to build Dyson Sphere surrounding Sun.  Dyson Sphere is a mandatory super-megastructure to produce the massive scale electric power enough to prop up the human civilisation spread inside the solar system. 

 3. Constructing Dyson Sphere from the factory and the power substation built on Mercury

This gigantic megastructure called Dyson sphere directly harnesses the energy produced from the nuclear fusion reaction of a star.  This is roughly estimated to produce the power equivalent to approximately 100 quintillion times of the electricity power plant equipped with the most efficient nuclear reactor available nowadays. Instead of capturing electricity from star-light by solar panels located in either the planet surface or the planet's orbit, the capturing equipment is settled directly beside a star itself. 

Some professional astronomers and many amateurs believe that there has already been an existence of Dyson sphere in the universe.  For instance, Hubble Space Telescope has detected a star in several millions light-years away showing the unusually frequent dimming of lights.  

Many sceptical astronomers have claimed that it is because of a bunch of space dusts and asteroids floating on this star orbit. Nevertheless, stars are the remarkable source of energy seemingly well-serviceable to sustain and expand a civilisation entrenched within or beyond a star-system. Therefore, there can be some alien civilisation successfully having constructed this gigantic megastructure to supply such a scale of energy power.

For humans living and thriving in the solar system, Dyson sphere will become an essential power supply source.  In particular, after expanding their habitation beyond their mother Earth, they will eventually need this scale of energy from the place where it is efficiently harnessed to meet their demand.  

At this period of development stage, they have to improve the living standard of their home planet Earth, maintaining the liveable environment for humans in their colonies, the Moon, Mars, and Venus, and continuing to station on asteroids and possibly the moons of Jupiter and Saturn.  Therefore, there will be a robust demand for the massive energy supply source of Dyson sphere for sure.

By means of the current understanding of physics, enveloping Sun with a solid shell of the sphere is so fragile that a collide with small asteroid will demolish the entire structure.  Then, instead of building a gigantic solid shell, many astrophysicists have come up with the idea of launching a humongous number of orbiting solar-panels (or the mirrors reflecting sun lights) and the energy collecting stations swarming around Sun. 

In order to keep these swarming parts floating, their materials have to be light and not easily colliding with the others.  In order to produce this humongous number, the design structure has to be simple as much as possible.  Thus, some astrophysicists have proposed the idea of combining the solar panel mechanism with the mechanism of the solar-sails 

The construction base must be build on the location with an abundant metal resource and near Sun. Mercury is the only candidate place to establish this base.   Mercury is the planet closest to Sun and metal-rich.  Furthermore, Mercury does not have an atmosphere so it is convenient to launch these parts onto Sun's orbit.  Then, it will be possible to constantly launch these parts by rail-guns from the surface of Mercury to Sun's orbit while repeatedly manufacturing these parts.  

The power transmission station between Dyson sphere and the other places will be settled in the Lagrange points L3, L4, and L5 of Mercury (L1 and L2 are too close to dodge the beam of energy power supplied from Dyson sphere).

4. Endeavour toward beyond the type II civilisation

After finishing the construction of Dyson sphere and successfully transmitting the energy supplied from there, this will be the point where humans will achieve to establish the type II civilisation of Kardashev scale.  

At that moment, humans will have explored the entire solar system to Pluto.  From then on, it becomes really difficult to imagine exactly how the human civilisation evolves furthermore.  

There is one perspective assuming that they will attach a gigantic thruster on Sun assisted by Dyson sphere to move the entire solar system all together.  It suggests this movement will be needed to dodge a shock-wave from a supernova or something threatening the existence of the solar system and the civilisation itself.

After these aforementioned events, it is beyond our comprehension to predict what is going to happen to evolve the civilisation beyond these imaginations. Yet, we have never know how the future will turn up to be meanwhile it is indeed interesting and might be helpful to imagine such a futuristic event. 

Strange Daily JPY Negative Correlation with TOPIX

It is said that Japanese Yen (JPY) moves awkwardly in the market because JPY tends to be appreciated while Japanese economy indicates the sign of downturn at least in the short run. This trend is often perpetuated even in the middle run. This surprises majority investors observing JPY trends.

In the long run, this awkward trend of JPY is usually corrected to follow the major indices of Japanese economy, such as major Japanese corporate stocks, with their positive correlation as same as the other major currencies of OECD countries such as US dollar (USD). Nevertheless, the market almost always demonstrates the notable negative correlation between JPY and a major Japanese stock index such as Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) while the observers and the participants monitoring it.

Majority of these individuals monitor JPY with the USD, the most traded pair of JPY, so USD/JPY (USD value based on JPY) is frequently used for the main reference to scale the change in JPY value. The following regression analysis based on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) for the time series analysis assesses this phenomenon by regressing the log difference of daily USD/JPY on the log difference of daily TOPIX in the time series.

*** Please note that the positve correlation of USD/JPY means the negative correlation of JPY/USD, and vice versa ! ***

 

The sign is positive , and its t-value is 13.3 which is way higher than the Dickey-Fuller critical value t = 2.89.

Then, in order to determine whether this time series correlation is valid or just a coincidence with no statistical validity, the residuals (the error terms) of the aforementioned OLS are tested by the autocorrelation analysis as follows. The first difference of the residuals are regressed on the lagged residuals. The test is to detect whether or the error term is corrected itsself, so the eroor correction model is recognised.

The sign is negative, and its t-value is -26.43 so the absolute value is way higher than the Dickey-Fuller critical value 2.89, and then the error correlation model holds.

The equation of this estimates of the autocorrelation is expanded as follows.

Then it can be expressed as shown in the graph below:

This pattern of JPY mechanism is caused by the obsolete transaction system of the entire banking and monetary function. The obsoleteness is characterised by both the inefficient physical mechanical equipment of the currency transaction of money and assets among banks and investors and the rigid traditional bureaucracy of government, central bank, and private banks in Japan.

Whenever, the market participants switch their holding assets with the others, the system requires them to convert their assets to the national currency JPY before purchasing the alternative asset. Furthermore, due to the slow transaction in this inefficiency, there is a significant lag of exchanging different assets. Therefore, it consequently induces them to hold JPY cash in their transaction process.

In addition, majority Japanese citizens have a strong faith in holding cash and the middle to high income Japanese citizens have a remarkably high propensity of saving (This is why the majority share of the government bonds is owned by these middle to high income earners. They have a strong tendency to hold cash all the more when the value of stock, bonds, and other equities started being depreciated. This accelerates the appreciation of JPY during the downturn on the top of the obsolete system inefficiency.

By contrast, during the upward market, the short run JPY depreciation may seem to be depreciated when TOPIX rises. Instead of TOPIX affecting JPY, this case scenario is that the depreciation of JPY causes to stimulate TOPIX because of the two reasons. Japanese economy is a heavily export driving economy so JPY depreciation increases the export demand and the revenue of the exporters trading by means of foreign currencies. Another reason is simply because of the transactional motive of the traders attempting to mitigate the fincial loss of their revenue from the depreciated JPY by replacing JPY with the other foreign currencies or any available, safe, and stable assets.

Mr. Rishi Sunak will well remain in the history of Macroeconomics for his Hawkishness

It is a surprise to see such a Hawkish Chancellor of Exchequer after a decade of the Dovish regime in the world economic policy.  Mr. Rishi Sunak is certainly brave while being a little bit reckless.  It is certainly brave to reveal such a tough Hawkish characteristic . He puts emphasis on his prudent attitude toward balancing the budget. Even under the still anticipated downturn with a still remaining strong anxiety, he is willing to increase the overall taxation (generally slowing down economy) to balance the budget.  He claimed that, failure of balancing the budget eventually results in the rise of both the price inflation and the interest rate for bonds and mortgages is certainly alarming for economy.  

Regarding the usage of the term Hawk and Dove, it does not refer to diplomatic and military policies.  This term is uniquely used in macroeconomic policies related to neither diplomacy nor military.  In terms of macroeconomics, Hawk is tough and prudent whilst Dove is tolerant and loose.  It sounds similar to diplomatic and military policies but the implemented channels and the targets for setting these policies are different and unique in economics. Both have advantages and disadvantages.

Hawks are intolerant towards the enemies of the macroeconomic environmental stability such as the high price inflation (devaluing the income value and disturbs financial planning) and the rumour of distrust from investors and foreign exporters&importers.   They put emphasis on eliminating the root causes of the instability by tightening controls over balanced budgets and setting the central interest rate relatively high enough (plotting to consequently lower the high interest rate and stabilise the real income value). 

Doves are on the other hand tolerant for using loose policies to save individuals and their economic environment from the hardships (such as unemployment and lack of rescuing resources) even with some expected negative side effects.  They frequently claim for need of the looseness because the overall benefit covers the cost incurred by the negative side effect, and it should take place temporarily at least.   

Both are equally good as well as bad because both have disadvantages indeed. Hawks are remarkably unpopular during the unexpected economic downturn because Hawkish austerity is possible to be tough also on majority individuals suffering from the downturn, and then is likely to delay the recovery from the downturn.  Doves are blamed for their speculative projections often underestimating the cost of their policies so it is likely to misjudge of the timing of both imposing and cancelling their loose policies, and then their tolerance contains the high contingent risk of losing the administrative capability. 

Focusing on what Mr. Rishi Sunak is attempts to put into practice, he manages his policies by handing the fiscal policy-channels such as increasing tax rates to increase the inland revenue to reduce the national debt and various bond interest rates. He promises to consequently protect British citizens' income from either the high mortgage interest rate, the high price inflation, and lack of foreign investments with this policy implementation.  

The fiscal policy-channels are able to tune the different tax rate for various targeted segments of economic. Nonetheless, the fiscal policy always contains the mis-selection of the target sectors to increase the tax rate causing the systemic risk collapsing economy caused by penalising the certain sector's performance interrelated to many of the others. This Sunakian fiscal policy is expected to effectively handled to hopefully induce the positive aftermath.    

Mr. Sunak's policy is neither misguided nor irrational.  There are many worthy qualities accountable for encouraging the sustainable robust British economy. Especially, this seems to function for keeping the value of Great British Pound Sterling and secure the trust in the capital market and the foreign trades. Furthermore, his policy takes account of ordinary majority British citizens for securing their future real income value.  At the same time, the biggest concern is to determine whether or not this is the right moment to be tough as Hawk meanwhile the popularity of the looseness is still enthusiastically supported by the mass.

Having analysed these aforementioned aspects, Mr. Rishi Sunak's Hawkishness is neither absolutely good nor absolutely bad; but it is yet controversial.  Only the future might be able to provide the convincing appropriate judgement over his policy-aftermath.

GBP/USD is now 1.40 on 22nd February, 2021!!!

Hey! Cannae believe that GBP/USD is soaring as such!! 😮 Many investment banks indicated this is because of the effect of the newly distributed vaccine. ... I am still sceptical about the improvement of economic activity because it is really difficult to think that Brexit has induced such a rapid short term recovery (though it might be plausible to say Brexit does in the relatively longer term)! Well, this is a really tricky moment to forecast. Although some investment banks have predicted GBP/USD to be around 1.42, Bank of England still alludes possibly implementing a negative interest rate causing to depreciate GBP value at least for a short run.

Valkyrie/Walkure, 01 Jan, 2021

Dear all, Happy New Year!  I wish all the best for all of you visiting my blog! This is my first painting of this year.  I am going to practice using CLIP STUDIO PAINTING PRO more to get accustomed with this PC painting tool. 

The year 2021 will be still a challenging time period.  I am kind of feeling like wanting to become an invincible fighter with an unconquerable mind to overcome from these hardships.  The protection of gorgeous Walkure is believed to be complementary for those who fight against the hardship, isn't it. At least, it can be something to want to seek.

 

 

 

 

 

with different background

 

 

 

Scottish Soldier: Comic-Tones

 

Tittle: Scottish Soldier. One of my current experiments of using CLIP STUDIO PAINT PRO. The comic-style with tones is tested at this time.