Monday, April 18, 2022

The paradigm of the crypto-currency market changed 180 degree since about a half decade ago.

Very interesting for me! When I read a blog "The text book for being rich (Ironic name as the author says lol )" more than a half decade ago, I learned that Bitcoin could be a new alternative to Gold because of their similarities such as the supply limitation determining their price. However. the paradigm of the crypto-currency market changed 180 degree since about a half decade ago.

The supply of Bitcoin has the diminishing return because the supply is determined the overall CPU capability of all the computers participating in this blockchain network.  In another word, it cannot be simply printed of thin air like the fiat-currencies.  Therefore, these market participants used to think that, even though these crypto-currencies do not have their own precise physical forms, they were thought as though they had it. Therefore, many professionals including the author of this book suggested to treat the crypto-currency as an inflation hedge. 

Nevertheless, the paradigm has drastically changed since various other kinds of the crypto-currencies were introduced to the market so that Bitcoin has become far less scarce as it used to be since then.  Instead of the supply scarcity, the speculative demand has started to be far more influential on the crypto-currencies. 

The price inflation goes up when the capital market is heated up with extra confidence in investment more than saving. By contrast, the market falls into the deflation when the confidence goes down so that the market participants start preferring much safer assets than the volatile crypto-currencies.  Therefore, the crypto-currency value change is recently positively correlated. 

All in all, the correlation between the crypto-currencies have suddenly and drastically changed from negative to positive!   

 



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