Saturday, April 09, 2022

The correlation betweeen currency value based on JPY vs the great circle distance from Kiev, Ukraine

 

 
I have been surprised at how much depreciated Japanese Yen (JPY) against the other currencies has been already.  However, I have realised that the appreciation of each currency by means of JPY is different.  I have guessed that the appreciation rate is lower as the region using this currency is closer to Ukraine where the conflict with Russia is ongoing.  Therefore, I have regressed these FX rate based on JPY with the natural log of their great circle distance from Kiev minus 6.6, and the coefficient is as predicted as shown this graph.

Data from Mizuho Bank: https://uranaisearchastrology.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/2021-2204_fx_mizuho_dist.xlsx

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