As there is still a plenty inventory of oil enough to calm the stagflation down
all the investors are just over-anticipating the bad news in the future.
That is why the oil price is rising, but this price rise will be just temporary.
Therefore, we should not be confused between the fake shock and the real shock.
According to the commentator on this video clip, the current oil price shock is the fake shock.
I would recommend not to react against the current shock on the oil price.
The oil price will goes down after a while.
My concern is that the reactions toward this shock (e.g. the interest rate hike due to the expected inflation caused by this oil price shock) themselves will induce another economic recession.
The controlling inflation is a top priority of any monetary policy so that the reaction toward the current fear of the oil price inflation itself (raising the interest rate) is right.
However, the monetary policy has to re-set the interest rate down soon as the "temporary" price shock calms down in order to avoid the recession caused by the excessly high interest rate undermining a healthy economic recovery.
Hense, I recommend you neither to intend to purchase the oil in the forward rate agreement nor to buy the share related to the oil industry in the forward rate agreement.
Otherwise, you are predicted to make a loss in the trade.
No comments:
Post a Comment