2018 New Year Forecast: Conservativeness, Unintelligibleness, and Cryptocurrency

1. Introduction
There have been so many incredible and unexpected scenarios taking place in this world these years. The development of the economic and political globalism seems to stagnate. The management of both nation-states and corporations also seems to struggle as they tend to be directed to the undesired consequences such as perpetually accumulating deficit and losing their ethical path. Many economic and political administrators have whispered that these events are unexpected and incredible.

Nonetheless, this world is at an ethical and technological transitional period which many have not explicitly realised. The globalisation will continue advancing although their advancement is temporarily stagnating due to the current fashion of majority individual's preferences. The picture of the financial economy will be furthermore diversified due to the drastic transformation of the world monetary system.

2. Astrology: Conservativeness and Unintelligibleness

This is the astrology chart of 1st January, 2018. The main focus on this chart is the position of Saturn and Neptune which will significantly affect the characteristics of this year. Individuals will experience the deep characteristics of the postmodern nihilism during this time period.


3. Saturn and Capricorn: Conservativeness
Since last 20th December, Saturn has started crossing the ascendant in Capricorn, and Saturn stays in this position for approximately 3 years. Capricorn is Saturn's own zodiacal sign so that the effect of both Saturn and Capricorn will be remarkably strong. This implies that the trend of conservativeness is emphasised and people focus more on the local and micro level of their life than the global and macro level. Furthermore, both Saturn and Capricorn represent patience and responsibility so that the perseverance of individuals for living in their life will be tested.

Economy requires firms to set their conservative rather than expansive management style to overcome from economic recession. Individuals prefer putting priority on developing and improving their local environment to the global counterparts. Those who maintain their responsibility and patience in their daily life will be rewarded well whilst those spending their extravagant life style and abandoning their responsibility in their daily life will be punished.


4. Neptune and Pisces: Unintelligibleness
Neptune is still crossing the ascendant in Pisces, and it takes approximately 8 years from now to finish crossing there. Because Pisces is the own zodiacal sign of Neptune, the characteristics of both Pisces and Neptune have influenced and will influence for 8 years from now. The characteristics are ambiguity, mystery, and spirituality. At this time period, various information flows tend to be inconsistent and decision making processes are hard to be stabilised. Then, many logical predictions are easily undermined due to various obstacles of obtaining information sets, and individuals often put priority on emotional opinions rather than logical and rational opinions during this period.

During this period, individuals lose their trust in many academic and financial analyses because most of these analyses are unable to provide them with a consistent and accurate estimate due to the current chaotic situation of the information flows. By contrast, fictional writing and preaching self-enlightenment will be popular and successful. Fictional writers do not have to be responsible for the conclusion of their stories because they are fictional so neither related to nor affecting the real world situations. Self-enlightenment provides individuals with their ability to self-evaluate their own life by admitting everyone's life style is different from each other so that it is not necessary to indicate a stable consistent solution for everyone.


5. Bitcoin and the other Cryptocurrency: Initial Coin Offering (ICO)

Rise of Bitcoin has surprised and influenced individuals in the entire world. It looked like showing the replacement of the current world monetary system from the scratch. Many individuals once predicted that Bitcoin and any other cryptocurrencies would not be so popular because they were too complex to utilise. Nevertheless, they were suddenly surprised at the sudden rise of the share of Bitcoin in 2017, and many have regretted of not having bought it.

Although it was a clever and reasonably profitable action to have purchased Bitcoin and/or another major cryptocurrency, it is unnecessary to regret of not having done so because the bubble of their share will end soon. Unlike the currency issued by a central bank, the money supply of Bitcoin and any other cryptocurrency is limited by their mining capacity. The mining capacity is the total capacity of the entire computers in this world for spending their memories and calculations for trading with Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency.

The future prediction of cryptocurrency is that they will be used for the asset investments like bonds and stocks more than the intermediary of exchange. This phenomenon has already taken place and it is called Initial Coin Offering (ICO). Venture businesses can join the market using one cryptocurrency or issue their own cryptocurrency to increase their share if they have the level of technology to do it. When these ventures become successful, the value of this cryptocurrency is appreciated so investors may purchase this cryptocurrency as the means of their investment.

Many venture businesses have struggled to invite investors from the world due to the regulation imposed by nation-states' government and a groups of big corporations which restricts these ventures from issuing their bonds and stocks. By contrast, cryptocurrency is out of reach of this kind of regulation because it takes place in the globally connected decentralised environment. This innovation offers ventures with attracting prospective investors from all over the world.


6. Conclusion

This year and these coming years will be a tricky time period that both conservative characteristics and innovative characteristics are revealed simultaneously. The small sized businesses and regional activities will be a big fashion trend. At the same time, the style of globalisation will be transformed from connecting big organisations with each other to connecting small institutes with each other in the global level. Many major academics and financial analysts will be challenged by this era of chaotic information flows, and individuals are expected to set their own life plan and estimates in their own daily life without relying on the others.

The invention of a cryptocurrency and its influence on the monetary system

- The Evolution of the Monetary System ------

The wealth gap between countries will be decreasing fast meanwhile the gap between rich and poor individuals will be increasing in the world. The world financial market remains to be active and expanding meanwhile it is become considerably competitive. This is the entire influence of the globalisation on the world financial economic situation. It provides individuals with the wide range of opportunities meanwhile it exaggerate competitions in the wide range. The new era of the information technological advancement combined with the globalisation will gradually transform the international macroeconomic environment and structure. The world monetary system will be based on the dual currency system of both the traditional currencies and the newly introduced cryptocurrencies.


- The invention of a cryptocurrency and its influence on the monetary system

In particular, the introduction of the cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin will be beneficial for individuals living in those countries where their national monetary system is immature and constantly in a turmoil situation. Many emerging countries (The term called LDCs and the third world will cease away) will adapt the electric currency such as Bitcoin or something similar. The leapfrogging development of the technological innovation allows various emerging economies in Africa, Asia, and South America to introduce the international electric monetary system like Bitcoin.This is far less costly than improving the already existing traditional monetary policy units. This is similar to the situation that these countries are much easier to adapt the new mobile phone devices and their market competition not restricted by the monopolistic corporations of the landlines.

Even the advanced economies with the relatively stable monetary system will be still impacted by the spread of this kind of cryptocurrency. More individuals in this world will start using Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency due to the accessibility to currency and the scale of trading places connecting the entire world via the world wide web. So, the market transaction based on the traditional currency issued by central banks will be more influenced by this new market based on the cryptocurrency.


The great advantage of Bitcoin is that its default programme limits the maximum money supply. The money supply can be increased by adding more CPU capacities to calculate in the entire system connecting the whole world. An individual contributing to adding the capacity with her/his PC gain some extra Bitcoin, and this is called mining. The reward of this mining process becomes smaller when the aggregate supply of Bitcoin becomes closer to the supply limit set by the default programme. Therefore, there is no authority which is able to either increase the excess money supply or prevent individuals from accessing to its usage.

In another word, Bitcoin is more likely to be considered as a commodity like Gold. However, Bitcoin enables far more individuals to access to its usage than Gold. This is because it is electrically traded at the speed of light because it is more efficient to set its market value than Gold. The value of this cryptocurrency is instantly measured by the products traded in this market and their trade frequency via the transaction based on this cryptocurrency. So, its value is instantly adjusted to the purchasing power of the entire world market using this cryptocurrency.


The traditional currency of central banks of a nation or a group of nation will lose its authority over economy, and individuals will start choosing both currencies, the traditional one and the cryptocurrency, for each different situation. Central banks will struggle to keep their security of maintaining their authority over the market where their issuing currency is distributed. Any devaluation of and/or any usage limitation of the traditional currency will encourage individuals to use the cryptocurrency more often. Therefore, the authorities of nations and a group of nations will attempt to maintain the royalty of citizens to their traditional currencies so that they will inevitably need to restrict their asymmetric distribution of the money supply which deviates from the optimum level required by the market.

The world monetary system will be the system combining the advantage of both the fixed foreign exchange market under the gold standard and the free flexible foreign exchange market. The value of the traditional currencies will be less deviated from the purchasing power parity due to the influence from the competition with the cryptocurrency. Even though the foreign exchange rate remains to be fluctuating, the value of currency will be much faster to converge to the optimum stable rate in the market. This also implies that it will be more difficult to gain profit from the arbitrage in the foreign exchange market.


All in all, any individuals will be emancipated from the dominance of national monetary authorities. Furthermore, it will be difficult for anyone to maintain their dominance propped up by gaining profit from the market arbitrage. Then, more financial institutes and individuals participating the market will severely struggle in their cut throat competition. These financial corporations will shift to create the alternative model of their investment strategy based on this new market situation, and those who are behind adapting this new model will lose their revenue. Hence, the dynamic transformation of the market competition and the wealth distribution system takes place in not only the real market situation explained in the previous chapter but also the financial market.

Bitcoin and the other Cryptocurrency: Conspiracy and Limitation

Who is Nakamoto Satoshi?

Bitcoin challenges against the status-quo of the monetary system and its market. This influence of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency, reduces the barrier of monetary transactions imposed by national governmental authorities backed up by the status-quo. These authorities are more likely to struggle to defend their vested interests obtained from the barriers imposed by the monetary system they control.

Doesn't anyone imagine the invention of Bitcoin seems to be similar to the invention of Tor, a free software for enabling anonymous communication? The CIA has invented Tor enabling the stealth search avoiding a censorship of various autocratic regimes opposing the US national interest.

Some conspiracy theorists say Satoshi Nakamoto is not a human: it is the joint name referring to the CIA. Nakomoto Satoshi (Surname before first name) can mean Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Naka means centre, and Moto means base. Then, Naka-Moto can mean central. Sato of Satoshi partially means intelligent. Shi of Satoshi means history. It may make sense because the CIA is an agency remains various historical footprints in the current world.

Like Tor was introduced by CIA, this conspiracy theory assuming Bitcoin was invented and introduced by the CIA may sound plausible. Regardless of the true origin and the root cause of the birth of Bitcoin, the market competition becomes far more efficient by bypassing various barriers of monetary transactions such as the trade-protectionism favouring nation-states' government and the collective distribution of wealth. The inflexible protectionism imposed by corrupt bureaucrats and the unfair distribution of wealth controlled by vested interests of monarchy and aristocracy are no longer effective as much as used to be.


Mining and Limitation

The traditional currencies will not cease but will be also heavily influenced by the existence of cryptocurrencies. Relatively less economically developed regions and relatively smaller sized nations will adapt cryptocurrency faster than economically developed regions.

Bitcoin does not replace the already existing currencies backed up by central banks. The traditional currencies issued by a central bank still maintain their own advantages: They are already established and majority are accustomed with it. Their credibility is linked to the credibility of a big institute such as a nation or a supranational union. The money supply is not limited by something like the mining capacity like cryptocurrency.

It is more resemblance to various commodities like Gold. The nature of cryptocurrencies is notably resemblance to commodities such as Gold. Both Bitcoin and Gold requires "mining" to increase their supply. The value of cryptocurrencies is counter-cyclical to the traditional currencies.