Sunday, November 28, 2021

Econometrics meets Astrology: Regressing the world GDP on the aspects of Jupiter and Neptune

In the European astrology, the aspects of Jupiter and Neptune denote the economic/financial prosperity.  Since I started the European astrology, I have become keen to test if the astrological chart can actually be interpreted by econometrical analysis because these aspects are based on the numerical values of these aspects' angles.  

The combination of Jupiter (expansion and growth) and Neptune (ambiguity and liquidity) represents the financial fortune of individuals, companies, and each different time transit.  It is believed that it is a bubble aspect when these two planets form the soft aspects such as the conjunction 0 degree (while it simultaneously induces the hard), the triangle 120 degree, and the sextile 60 degree. On the other hand, it is a broke/crisis aspect when these two planets form the hard aspects such as the opposition 180 degree and the square 90 degree (and also the conjunction simultaneously).  

Then, the following 3 explanatory variables generated by the trigonometric function are created: 

1. The most complex indicator showing a higher value when the aspect angle is close to the soft aspect while a lower value when the aspect angle is close to the hard aspect.  

This could not catch up the positive effect of the zero degree. But, instead of making the valuable excessively complex, the 3rd explanatory variable represents the positive effect of the zero degree angle (Conjunction). 

2. Just a modulus of the sine of the radians representing the effect of the square 90 degree aspect.  The negative effect of another hard aspect angle 180 degree angle (Opposition) is shown by the following 3rd explanatory variable.

3.  The most simple cosine of the radians indicating the highest value at the zero degree angle (Conjunction) and the lowest value at the 180 degree angle (Opposition).

Therefore, the equation for the ordinary least squares (OLS) becomes as the displayed one. 

The coefficient of B1 is expected to be positive, B2 is negative, and B3 is mildly positive.

The result is amazing!  The coefficients of these explanatory variables have turned up to be what expected to be! 

These significances cannot expected to be so strong and the model in general looks rough because this statistical analysis based on a rough and extraordinarily big picture such as a transit aspect of the world GDP in a single chart. 

In order to expect to create a stronger model with stronger significance levels, it requires more precise pictures of the target objects such as the more complex aspects, each individual regional aspects', etc.  

Nevertheless, this can be said to be a big achievement for an econometrician and an astrologist because this analysis actually indicates such a rough estimator as the astrological aspect is able to estimate the world economic outlook to the certain extend! 


Data references:

* You may download the excel file basing this analysis by clicking here.*