Logics and its reliability

Logics is not mathematics; it is a form of art. The validity of Mathematical equations is derived from mathematical axiom to induce the unified valid legitimate answer. By contrast, pure logics lacks this kind of criterion like mathematical axiom verifying the validity of the logical inference. Therefore, many logical subjects are unable to derive a solid unified answer so that they often provoke the conflict among different perspectives.

Logics is a form of expression to display the outcome which an individual wishes to achieve. For instance, the abduction shows A will induce C if A is/implies B as well as B is/implies C. At the same time, this answer can be modified by taking account of some external compound effect inside this algorism. There is no criterion enabling this algorism to self-evaluate to judge whether it is valid or invalid according to something like mathematical axiom.

Plato seems to be introduced as a figure head of the idealist philosopher in the history. However, his idealism hardly goes beyond the daily-life custom and experience. His logical inference is purely based on A and not A. Plato actually ended up with being an ultra-realist insisting on the importance of the power structure stabilising the human society instead of inventing some abstract concept beyond the human nature. But yet, Plato as well as his predecessor Socrates opened the gate of pursuing a universal objective to achieve the ideal state which a human individual may want to aspire.

By contrast, both Bentham and Kant invented their own theory of self-evaluating the validity of their logical inference with reference to the fundamental axiom of philosophical logics. This invention has enabled thinkers to imagine their ideal state beyond their real-life experiences. There shall be something verifying the validity of both A and not-A as well as inferring the unseen valid alternative of neither A nor not-A.

The crucial difference between Benthamite and Kantian logics is either human nature is changeable or not. Bentham affirmed the criterion is to admit and follow the quasi-instinct of humans as natural whereas Kant insisted on something transcending the human nature forming human custom, desire, habit, superstition, tradition, etc. Even though philosophers keep disputing over which criterion is more convincing than the other, these modern idealists provided individuals with the imagination ability of thinking outside the box to think bigger.

Those who are called Pragmatists have adopted the combined perspectives of Benthamite and Kantian perspectives. They accept various unique criteria existing for each distinct verification process for each unique subject. They have distinguished criteria and objectives which individual refer to and pursue between the metaphysical subjects such as philosophy and religion and the physical scientific subjects such as natural science and daily-life matters such as household economy and business activities.

The metaphysical subject depends on norms and values of each unique world view whilst each physical science is ought to focus on their own short-term goal as their pursuing criterion detached from a metaphysical/philosophical (the big picture model). Natural science pursuing to discover the concepts explaining the nature of the substantial world mechanism by means of their experiment in nature. The real business management, distinguished from the academic subject called business management, verifies its legitimacy of existence by means of their business performance, portfolio, and profitability.



Ayn Rand ardently disagreed with these modern idealists cohesively imposing a solid answer for defining the legitimacy of human actions and thoughts because imposing a universal principle defined by a certain privileged individual group to the other majority individuals is hypocritical. She admitted that philosophy does not need to be something axiomatic like mathematics to forcibly deriving an absolute answer. She described human’s life is an everlasting pursuit of finding their own way of spending life as well as feeling and thinking their own imagination while being adjusted to each unique life environment varying across different times, places, and occasions.

Ayn Rand praised both art and pure logics which all the human individuals should be devoted in. She explained art is the outcome of each unique logical construction by each individual expressing their own beauty, functionality, intelligence, and value.　There should be no unified verification criterion/principle for approving their legitimacy. Instead, “try and error” guides individuals to their own ideal goal with the minimum required contracts and restrictions promoting and protecting the freedom of each individual to prevent unnecessary conflict, violation of freedom.

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Nowadays, many academics as well as business and financial reporters often fail to address this aforementioned issue. There is no discussion over where the principle which their logical inference is based on. These authoritarians tend to hypocritically behave as though they were the transcendental guardians of all the humans whereas their logical inference is never universally valid in the real life of all the individuals. Their logical inference is simply the mere interpretation of their subjective desires and wishes.

In conclusion, it is important to question how logics is structured and the ulterior motive of the presenter using logics. For example, when a presenter uses her/his logics to forecast some outlook, her/his ulterior motive can be simply a subjective desire rather than an objective rationality. Instead of ranting on wishy-washy outcomes, it is rather productive to do some activities fulfilling the ethically worth something regardless of the future anticipation. If someone is excessively logical to explain or excuse something, there is a risk of this person intentionally intriguing to take an advantage of manipulating the others only for this person’s interest. 

Social Democracy is not exactly equal to Socialism

 

The terminologies of political ideologies are really complex to explain as well as indeed maniac for most people unless they are keen to study political science. In particular, when it comes to define Socialism, the definition varies across interpreters. Moreover, Social Democracy does not exactly imply Socialism whereas Democratic Socialism implies Socialism for certain.

 

The definition of Socialism involves a wide range of policy-implementations in terms of both economic and social scales. Generally, Socialism means to proactively take the external influences of policies on society (taking an account of the group of individuals, their interactions, and the external environment where they cohabit together in) into consideration. The fundamental problem of Socialism is the subjective interpretation of what are good for society so that its interpretation often depends on each interpreter implementing Socialist policies.

 

Focusing on the economic policies, Socialism is often used as the synonym of the collective/command economy based on the cohesive planning ahead as opposed to the market economy based on the laissez-faire planning. The market economy allows each individual economic agent to decide while trading their goods and services where it relies on the spontaneously driven distribution order. By contrast, Socialists insist on planning of, or intervention to at least, economy to induce their desired outcome. There tends to be a paternalistic institute, which can be either government or commune, instructing each individual and their firms with reference to their Socialist planning.

 

The types of Socialism are unique from each other depending on the instrument of implementing their policies interpret as producing good outcomes for society. Their uniqueness is more obvious in the social-policy scale than the economic-policy scale of political science. The orthodox Marxism in particular puts emphasis on the revolutionary government by the proletariat autocracy commanded by the chosen elites selected from the proletariat citizens who are supposed to be excel at knowing what are the best for their society are. Anarch-Syndicalism relies on the community of individuals who are voluntarily gathered into it from any social background to negotiate and decide their policies to implement. Democratic Socialism stands between these two policies as it allows the open political decision-making processes while it weighs on the responsibility of the chosen represents by non-random selection.

 

The confusion is that Democratic Socialism and Social Democracy are not technically equal to each other. Democratic Socialism prioritises the paternalistic planning/intervention into individuals' life and their living environment (i.e. society) while encouraging the minimum required open decision-making processes. Social Democracy still takes policy-impacts on society into consideration to the certain extend. However, it defies the paternalistic collective order and responsibility imposed by Socialism restricting each individual's freedom of choice and voluntary will.

 

In terms of the social-policy scale, the difference between Democratic Socialism and Social Democracy is slight because both support the open decision-making process conducted by the representatives elected by the citizens as well as the certain degree of political freedom for individuals unless threatening the system stability. On the other hand, in terms of the economic-policy scale, their difference is obvious. Social Democracy embraces the market economy with the optimum level of the intervention required for solving their social issues of concern whereas it avoids being the perfectionist paternalism suppressing both economic efficiency and individuals' own freedom of choice.

 

Social Democracy is actually the derivation of Liberalism encouraging each individual's own voluntary actions and free will instead of collectively intervening into them. Social Democracy is relatively more friendly to Socialism than the other types of Liberalism. It trusts in the invisible hand spontaneously adjusting the socioeconomic environment by letting individuals and their interactions be free. This is the critically unique point distinguishing it from Democratic Socialism supporting much stronger interventions into individuals and their interactions for their perfectionist objective.

 

Sum up, the word order makes a distinctive contrast between those two policies: Socialism and Social Democracy. They are neither exactly different nor same. It may be insignificant in our daily life and journalism meanwhile its difference is significant in political science. Hence, it is important to take enough attention to quote this kind of terminologies.

 

Cloud Revolution !

When I started knowing the existence of the public cloud services such as Amazon Web Service (AWS), Microsoft Azure (MS Azure), and Google Cloud Platform (GCP), I realised that it would be a remarkable innovation enough to be called revolution. Revolution alters the socioeconomic structure even including the infrastructural fundament and the ethical code. As same as the political revolution, the introduction of the public cloud is the business revolution!

First of all, the biggest impact is that there is no computer room containing servers, database (DB), and their network side a company office by using the public cloud service. These physical devices are located in the remote centre owned by the public cloud vendor so that they are simply outsourced.

This is advantageous for the accounting administration because it can avoid the capital expenditure and tax levied on it. In addition, its charge is based on pay-as-you-go so there is little need for preparing for the estimated volume usage. There is neither dead-weight loss of not using the computer enough or lacking the computer capacity due to the sudden heavy traffic while running a business.

The initial investment for the capital expenditure often challenges new entrepreneurs establishing their new firm. This factor used to discourage newly entering entrepreneurs from starting their own business. However, the public cloud has eased starting an entrepreneur to flexibly open their new business since its emergence. It is almost like a miracle enabling an individual to directly connect to the already configured server network without building her/himself!

In the past, starting a new business alone used to be considered as reckless. It used to require a reasonable size of the company office and more than one staff to operate a new business in order to maximise the full potential of the capital initially invested such as an office and devices. By contrast, the public cloud allows to start a business without any preparation for both devices and their space. Therefore, this is indeed a liberation for a lone entrepreneur from the territorial pressure and the labourers’ riot!

Another advantage for this entrepreneur is that s/he can flexibly travel around the world as long as it is connected to the public cloud service. No office at a fixed place is required to sit in! This entrepreneur can travel freely and budget her/his budget more flexibly without being bound to looking after a physical property. It emancipates an individual from the landlord’s rent seeking oppression!

In conclusion, the public cloud usage is indeed a revolution replacing the already obsolete norms and values in the entrepreneurship! Because big companies employing individuals are no longer able/willing to employee them to look after, it may be more important for them to start their own business instead of expecting these companies to hire them.

 

Anxiety

 Anxiety is haunting me, and also many others, nowadays. In particular, anxieties about the future prospect such as financial anxiety are the crucial problems. Unfortunately, it is certain that the material well-beings of majority individuals will continue declining. In terms of the economic analysis as well as the astrological analysis, the near future outlook looks very gloomy for certain. Thus, the world society will furthermore require us to be stoic rather than being optimistic.

Focusing on the economic analysis, the market multiplier is slowing down despite the continuous remarkably rapid technological growth especially for the information technology. There is a strange dilemma in the labour market: There is a skilled labour shortage while misemployment and unemployment are considered to be high in the labour market. This labour market mismatch combined with the stagnating income and investment distribution flow discourages the social mobility as well as the income gaining opportunity of individuals wishing to improve their lifestyle.

Focusing on the astrological analysis, the world will be in the recession by 2024. Currently, Uranus is crossing the ascendant of Taurus, the detrimental sign of Uranus, until 2024 as well as forming the square aspect with Saturn crossing Aquarius, the own sign of Saturn for these years. This infers that the socioeconomic stagnation is really severe at least until 2025. Furthermore, Pluto is going to start crossing the ascendant of Aquarius for 18 years from 2023 onward. Aquarius represents equality of outcome and justice as well as individual freedom under restriction and some degree of traditionalism. Aquarius is forming the hard aspect with Taurus (Economy), Leo (Political Power), and Scorpio (Intimate relationship) so that the socio-economy will shift from the centralised active globalist form to the decentralised less active form.

Considering these two analyses, it will be wise to become stoic to keep our lifestyle as humble and cost-efficient as much as possible than aspiring to expect for a lucrative lifestyle in the coming age. Stoic ethics may become worth off to refer to as our life instruction guidance then. The modernity characterised with the intensive Yang (bright) element is ending so that the Ying (shadow) element is being intensified as the reaction. Instead of wanting more, we are more required to wanting less from now on. We must accept various pains as they are instead of regretting for them. We also must accept the fact that the capability of solving problems for all of us are limited by means of our physical strength, social status, and external environments. Therefore, there are various things outside our own responsibility so that it is important to excuse for our inability.

Sum up, the anxiety will never seem to disappear because the drastic lifestyle change will certainly take place in the near future. The antidote against this anxiety may be being stoic enough to keep our lifestyle humble and cost efficient as well as not bearing the full responsibility so that it is important to rely on the public support. Hence, we had better simply accept that it cannot be helped so much.

Recession in 2024

 

The major recession is coming in 2024 for certain by means of both the international financial analysis and the astrological analysis (from the later half of 2024)! In terms of the international finance, the short-term United State (US) bond interest rate is higher than the long-term counterpart now. This infers to forecast the economic outlook of a few years ahead is worse than the one at the recent time period. In terms of the astrological analysis, the square aspect of Jupiter and Neptune has almost always triggered the world gross domestic product (GDP) decline. This is econometrically experimented in my own research.

The current interest rate hike of the US and the Western European central banks is recently notable due to the ongoing price inflation pressure. However, the long-term (3 to 5 years) rate still stays low, and this implies the low growth of both the GDP representing the combination of both the price inflation and the production output level in a few years ahead. This phenomenon has almost always taken place approximately 2 years before the world-wide recession strikes owing to the financial statistics. Therefore, it is most likely to have the recession in 2024.

The modern Western astrology denotes the aspects of Jupiter and Neptune combined representing the financial flow. Jupiter represents expansion and wealth whilst Neptune represents ambiguity and flash-flood. Therefore, the combination of what each of these two plants represents indeed explains the financial market. The soft aspects such as the triangle 120 degree and the sextile 60 degree tend to induce the reasonable financial wealth growth whereas the hard aspects such as the opposition 180 degree and the square 90 degree tend to induce hard challenges for the financial wealth creation.

When the world GBP (US$ base) is regressed on three explanatory variables based on trigonometric functions, their correlation shows that astrological representation actually holds as it explains! The first explanatory variable is based on the equation of the cube root of 1 minus two times the modulus of 0.5 subtracted by the modulus of the cosine. This variable is maximised at the 60 and 120 degrees whilst it is minimised at 0, 90, and 180 degrees. The second explanatory variable is the modulus of the sine which is maximised at the 90 degree square aspect. The third explanatory variable is simply the cosine which is maximised at the 0 degree conjunction whereas it is minimised at the 180 degree opposition. 

All these three coefficients' confidence levels are above 90 percent. The third variable's correlation was mild whereas the conjunction aspect is positively correlated while the opposition aspect is negatively correlated. The first variable's correlation is slightly below 95 percent which is still convincing. It seems to be difficult to use the 95 percent confidential interval to determine the confidence level by using such a relatively rough fluctuant indicator like the world GDP level.  Then, using the 90 percent confidence level is worth off to be used for the alternative measure. 

The most intensive and interesting result is the second explanatory variable's correlation which is above 95 percent with its negative correlation with the dependent variable, the world GDP! By means of the statistical inference, this can conclude that this is certain to happen in the future when this correlation takes place. Thus, this is certain that the world GDP declines when Jupiter and Neptune from the square aspect which is going to take place in 2024.

... Japan 日本 !

I have been criticising Japan since the beginning of this site establishment. This criticism of Japan is based on both the objective social scientific analyses as well as the subjective perspective based on my own life experiences. However, I have recently realised that the characteristics of Japan strongly and repeatedly accused seem to be originated from the political establishment explained in the recorded history. 

The Tenno regime has formed the totalitarian characteristics. This has based the highly stratified social structure transforming the majority citizens' personality to be subservient to their authority. The intensively cohesive social norms and values are definitely the derivatives of this stratified social structure. 

Even during the Shogunate periods from the 12th to the 19th century, this cohesive social structure thrived despite the relatively weaker influence of the aristocratic central authority. Yet, the subservient personality of the Japanese mass was hardly discouraged so that their loyalty to any authority was strong regardless of Tenno or Shogun. Perhaps, this unchangeable subservient personality was derived from the Japanese geographical isolation in the world where the enlightenment from the outside hardly reached there. 

Since the 19th century, Japan has adopted the Western style modern governance and capitalist economy. Some elites Japanese have successfully been enlightened to become progressive thinkers attempting to transform Japan to the modern nation state deserving the majority citizens. Nevertheless, the underlying characteristics and personality of Japanese people subservient to their authority has never changed. 

Even though some enlightenment ideal has been introduced, the true enlightenment for emancipating majority Japanese individuals from their superstitious loyalty and servile personality has hey never been achieved. This is the fundamental cause of perpetuating the political and social corruption hurting the Japanese majority mass as a suicidal attitude of themselves. It seems to have required much more fundamentally drastic reform in Japan to enlighten them.

There has been criticism by the social anthropological theory of this socially pathological trait is rooted in the establishment stage of the authoritarian figure shown in the recorded history. The original Japanese civilisation identity was originally related to the Shintoist shamanism which followed the tranquil communitarian paganism promoting more egalitarian and mutualist social norms and values.

There is certainly an attractive element in Japan and Japanese humans and their civilisation which has been retained since the prehistorical period. The prehistorical ancient Shintoist shamanism and pagan practices had brought up Japanese individuals as highly spirited enough to compassionately cohabit with neighbouring individuals and natural environments. Their virtuous characteristics such as diligence and humbleness must have been born out of this period. 

The authoritarian establishment introduced in the early historical record destroyed that prehistorical sacred pagan Japan. The social anthropological theory claims that the peaceful pagan tradition of the Japanese civilisation has been hijacked by the authoritarian oppressors. The subservient personality of the Japanese mass must be formed by that oppressive structuralist regime forcing the excess centralisation of politics and the unconditional subservience of the Japanese mass to these oppressive rulers. 

The Japanese indigenous individuals were conquered by the few numbers of arrogant nobles heavily influenced by the oppressive authoritarian totalitarianism. These oppressors hijacked Shinto by replacing the original peaceful egalitarian paganism with the oppressive authoritarian counterpart. Its indoctrination has imprinted the servile and intolerant personality into the Japanese mass. 

In order to overcome from the current distressful social crises, it is the time for Japan and Japanese to reincarnate the sacred spiritual prehistorical Japan! It is not worth to give up this attempt to fight back against the oppressive status-quo exploiting individuals with the millennium long indoctrination!