The World War III (WW3) Predicted (Mere simulation)

* This is a post archive "The 2014 New Year Forecast, and The World War III (WW3) Predicted"

*** The World War III (WW3) Predicted ***

* This is just a simulation, and I hope this world war will not happen in real.


1. The 2014 New Year Forecast:

As it has been mentioned in an article "Sunday, June 27, 2010: According to Kondratieff cycle, the Spring won't come until 2014 at the earliest", the year in the Spring will not come until 2014 at the earliest owing to the analysis based on the combination of Kondratieff 's economic cycle theory, the New Economic Geography theory, and Emile Durkheim 's sociological theory of Anomie. The economic downturn in this half decade was the severest in the world history due to its scale of the impact.

Fortunately, in the world average, the economic downturn seem to have hit the bottom, and some countries' economy seems to have started recovering little by little. America, Britain, and Japan seem to have rode on the track of the recovery according to the various numerical data sets shown by many institutions. The Eurozone is still stagnating due to their undetermined attitude of reforming their economy and the inflexibility caused by the current unstable fiscal policy management. But, the Eurozone seems to put more priority on the stability over the artificially stimulated recovery and strictly impose the austerity plan conducting them to rationally manage their fiscal policy. So, the Eurozone economy will neither rapidly recover nor dramatically fall down. The economy of both the emerging economies and the LDCs still keeps its steady economic growth, even though its speed became lower than it used to be, thanks to the abundant investment flow there in the globalised world economy.

Nevertheless, as the commonsense of economics tells, the effect of an economic downturn are usually lugging over the future time periods, and their scale is huge when the time of downturn is long and the scale is wide. For example, the unemployment created in the previous years will still remain to be high in the present and the near future time period.

The changing effect of the advanced economies over the emerging and LDC economies is also lugging. At the first step of the economic downturn of the advanced economies, the investors usually switch their investing countries from the advanced regions to the emerging or the LDC regions. However, when the marginal return from these investments starts declining, these investors stop investing especially when their income gain from their own home country keeps declining. In addition, when the advanced economies starts showing the sign of economic recovery after hitting the bottom of the recession, the money lenders in the emerging and the LDC economies severely suffer as shown in Asia in 1990s. Because the interest rate of the emerging and the LDC economies are dependent on the investment from the advanced economies, the interest rates of both regions are often highly positively correlated. Therefore, the sudden interest rate rise of any central banks of the advanced economies will increase the total costs of firms in these emerging and LDC economies.

All in all, the backlog effect of the past economic downturn of the advanced economies will hit the emerging economies and LDCs from this year onward. So, the tension caused by this backlog effect of the economic downturn might cause the world political havoc.



2. Potential Conflict between China and India over the fresh water resource:

Both China and India are the countries which are experiencing a rapid economic growth in a huge scale and have a huge population more than 1 billion. When the economic growth of both starts going down, the scale of the negative effects caused by the downturn will be enormous enough to increase the mass's frustration. Even though the economic growth speed goes down compared to the previous years, their government and corporations will inject their economic stimulus to keep their economy growing. They still aspire to encourage their further industrialisation process, and then the natural resource will be furthermore demanded increase their overall productivity.

The most fundamentally required natural resource for industrialisation is fresh water. The other kinds of natural resources are relatively more substitutable than fresh water. The interesting fact is that both China and India, two massive nations, share the same location of their fresh water supply source which is Himalayas. Because both economies are slowly but steadily grows and the population of these two nations are still rapidly growing, these countries will require to secure gaining the water supply. These two countries will want to obtain more territories in Himalayas than the counterpart. So, they may attempt to monopolise the fresh water supply even with force.

The wage growth may start to be lowered with comparison to the price inflation, and the involuntary unemployment may start increasing due to the real wage decline and the switch from the labour intensive to the capital intensive owing to the technological advancement. Because of this slow growth, the social mobility among people of these two nation also will be significantly lowered than the previous years. This economic aspect will cause the frustration among the majority people in these two nations.

On the top of economics, there is an interesting demographic situation of these two nations related to increasing frustration there which may cause the war. Both China and India have a proportionally very high male population as shown in the table below:

The amazing fact is that the male population minus the female population of the 0 - 54 years old is 43 millions in China, and 49 millions in India. The sexually active male population in the present and the near future is enormously high compared to the female counterpart. This indicates that more young males in these two nations will be sexually frustrated.

The majority mass start expecting their nation to expand their business opportunities and to obtain a bigger land mass and more natural resources. On the top of this material needs and wants, the tremendously high young frustrated male population will transform their personality to be more aggressive.
The combination of these frustrations often increases the tension provoking a big war even by causing a small friction between these two nations. Therefore, the friction caused by the competition to secure the potential conflict over the precious fresh water resource in Himalaya looks like a trigger of a war between them.



3. Russian assists India, and they form the India & Russia Alliance:

The geopolitical situation of this world from 20th century onward encourages the antagonism between China and Russia. They occasionally formed an unfriendly alliance, but have never been friendly to each other and often attempted to sabotage the other in the foreign diplomacy. Both China and Russia are the nations who have a strong feeling of pride in themselves. They always maintain their dominance to be a suzerain nation, and so have never approved to be fully controlled by any other nation. Therefore, China and Russia have been competing with each other as the rivals or even the potential enemies of each other. During the time when they formed the alliance, they looked for an enemy of their rival to create a friendly diplomatic tie with to sabotage their rival even though this act could abandoning their alliance.

The other reason why Russia will participate against China is the economically and militarily strong strategic bilateral relationship between India and Russia. Since the cold war, Russia has aided various LDCs to attract them to supporting the Russian side. Even though India kept its solid politically neutral stance in the Cold War, the diplomatic relation between India and Russia became friendlily attached to each other. India was the best alternative LDC to form an alliance with when China was not reliable. So, Russia was eager to establish a close friendly bilateral relation with India. Then, Russia acted as a foreign diplomatic mediator peacefully intervening between India and Pakistan, and helped Bangladesh to be independent from Pakistan. Even though Russia tried to keep this matter fair and peaceful, the contemporary Russian attitude in India continent looked India leaning doing more favour for India.

Furthermore, because China and India have been conflicting over the territories near their national boarder for a long time, China felt unpleasant about Russian friendship with India. This story has induced China and Pakistan to form the alliance as both recognised each other under the doctrine "An enemy of their enemy is their friend".

Even nowadays, this geopolitical situation has been kept as same as it was during the Cold War. This is because that their political alliance is not based on the shared political ideology: Their diplomatic relation is based on the materialistic interest in each other. India needs Russian technological aids and Russian assistance to fight against both China and Pakistan. Russia needs India as a trade partner who has the economic advantages which Russia does not have as well as to avoid China being monopolistic.


4. Reaction of the world:

Because China and Pakistan form a very close bilateral relationship, they will also form the strong friendly alliance together in the predicted war. By means of the size of a nation, their bilateral relationship will be based on an unequal relationship unlike the India&Russian alliance, and so Pakistan will be rather treated as a satellite nation of China. The interesting aspect of the international politics is that China has developed the remarkable trade relationship with the Middle East and Africa for over a millennium. Nowadays, China still retains this tradition so that China has been aggressively aiding and investing to these nations in the Middle East and Africa since China succeeded in its rapid industrialisation. Even while the USA encouraged all over the world to negatively sanction many of these nations, China did not stop its relationship with them.

The role of the developing countries with the emerging economy will be more significantly important in the new world political economic situation. Under this globalisation, the gap between the advanced economies and the LDCs will be furthermore minimised. The advanced countries will no longer experience the rapid economic growth meanwhile the rest of the world will still grow. So, attracting the support of the emerging market will be the key to hold the initiative in this predicted war as well. Therefore, both sides, the India&Russian alliance and China, will more focus on attracting the attention of these emerging market than the North America and Europe.

The key factors to forecast which countries in the world support which side, the India&Rusian alliance or China, are the historically long relationship, the proportion of the shared common ethnic group, how much China has invested to Africa, the Middle East, the Central Asia, and South America, and how different nations value China as

The majority of the European European countries will be Russian satellites due to the close ethnic and political characteristics. Even though these country have some citizens who wish to keep a distance from Russia, the political pressure groups there will be proactive to maintain their country to be loyal to Russia.

Myanmar and many central Asian countries will be China's satellites because of the massive investment from China. Malaysia and Singapore will be China leaning because of the high Chinese population. Indonesia will suffer from the dilemma between supporting the joint cause of China and Islamic countries and remaining the anti-China policy for its independent sovereignty.

Africa is the mixture of pro-China and anti-China nations. Even though majority of African countries will support China due to China's rampart investment there, there still sufficient number of countries which remain their diplomatic attitude as anti-China.

South America will be divided into the two side. Brazil's political attitude of anti-China and pro-Russia will encourage Brazil to be a remarkable satellite nation of the India&Russia alliance. Chilli also shows far away from the relationship with China. The totalitarian countries whose political tie with China is strong such as Cuba and Venezuela will become China's satellites. The other countries not politically but very economically close relationship will be China leaning.


The United States of America (The USA) will neither aggressively nor directly intervene this war between the India&Russia alliance and the alliance of China and its satellites. It does not fulfill the USA's national interest by leading either side to completely win over the others. The intervention of the USA will be indirect and implicit. The perpetuation of this war will benefit to the weapon factories in the USA so that these US war merchants will secretly sell their weapons to abroad. However, relatively speaking, the USA will be more supportive to the India&Russia alliance for the strategic reason. The USA will attempt to maintain Taiwan's independence and secure the existence of Israel, and this action will antagonise both China and Islamic nations in the Middle East.

Japan will keep its indecisive attitude in the foreign diplomatic relations, and let the others to determine how Japan should react. During the Cold War, while Russia was threatening Japan, China came close to establish a friendship with Japan. From the end of the Cold War to the current time period, China started threatening Japan. Then, since the USSR collapsed, Russia and Japan have no longer become a significant political enemies any more. So, Russia stated to attempt to approach to Japan for a friendly diplomacy in order to counter China's threat together. India also shows its interest in assisting Japan militarily threatened by China.

Europe will be divided into three groups, China-leaning, Russia-leaning, and neutral. Because Europe has no longer hold a strong initiative over the world economy and politics, European influence will be not significant compared to countries in Asia, Africa, and South America. The core member states of the EU such as France, Germany, and Benelux countries will be relatively more China leaning because of their conflicting relationship with Russia. Some EU nations which have a strong anti-China sentiment among their citizens will be relatively more Russian leaning. The deep Eastern Europe will be under control of Russia. The UK and Ireland will keep their neutrality, and attempt to keep the diplomatic tie with both sides. Overall, Europe's involvement into this predicted warfare is very minimal because they will be too preoccupied to solve their own ongoing economic and political problems.


The map below is drawn by the previously mentioned analyses:

5. Hot, Cold, or Mild War?

If it is to happen in real, this war will be the mild war. The number and the size of the total wars which will take place will not be big as much as the previous two world wars but will be bigger than the Cold War. There will be guerrilla warfare frequently as much as the Cold War. This war will be more intense and direct than the Cold War. The temperature of this predicted war will be mild, neither hot as much as the previous two WWs nor the Cold War.

This analysis is just a simulation to forecast what will happen if the aforementioned tensions become serious so that the war is not officially predicted to be provoked. Nonetheless, this analysis will help to forecast the economic and political dynamic changes in this world from 2014 onward.

Madness and Civilisation by Michel Faucault

We had better read "Madness and Civilisation" by Michel Faucault. It explains how the modern "society" has started discriminating those who are seen handicapped and mentally challenging. Faucault sometimes romanticises the past way too much and overestimate communism as a solution. However, he provided a productive scepticism about unconditionally accepting development and modernisation without questioning and he criticised not only capitalism but also socialism both of which discourage liberty of individuals and their free self-expression.

Mad and handicapped individuals used to be more accepted in the past as just different. They were even sometimes treated as useful because they have a unique ability of challenging something beyond capacity or being able to perceive something not perceivable. They are integrated into their community with the rest majority, and they found their own virtue of being parts of humans' activities. There was not any specific definition of distinguishing individuals between normal and abnormal/disabled/mad, and they naturally accepted the difference of characteristics.

But, the modern "society" started labeling them as "non-conforming" as a product like a cogwheel. Faucault successfully pointed out that individuality is rather forfeited in this modern world although it often puts emphasis on individuality. Individuals are allowed to enjoy benefits from the modernity as long as they are approved as conforming as the "products" contributing to functioning the apparatus called the modernity. By contrast, those who are labelled as nonconforming are treated as useless and/or inferior.

Human individuals nowadays live in a more materially better off but more complex world. The modernisation has brought a lot of benefits and developed human-individuals' intelligence by inventing a big and complex function of modern society. On the other hand, the big complex nature of this society requires an intensive conformity straining individuals to adjust themselves and contribute to its function as the cogwheel mobilising this apparatus of modern society. After having achieved a development of modernity, it has come to the point where individuals had better learn from the inclusive characteristics of pre-modernity to compensate for the stressful strain of modern society while maintaining the benefits of modernity.

Brief Introduction of an economic policy of Kakuei Tanaka 田中角栄

On 04/05/1918, Mr. Kakuei Tanaka 田中角栄, who has dedicated his life for Japanese political development and advocated the base ideology of Japanese Liberal-Naitonalism, descended to the earth. With welcoming his birth day, this document is dedicated to show respect for Kakuei Tanaka and reminds his achievements. His great talent as the Japanese prime minister contributed to enable Japan to be diplomatically independent as a true sovereign state. Moreover, his project called "the Plan to Remodel the Japanese archipelago 日本列島改造計画" stimulated Japanese rapid economic growth thanks to his rare innate talent not only as a politician but also as a capitalist/entrepreneur. I am firmly proud of the part of Japanese history in which Mr. Kakuei Tanaka existed.

Mr Tanaka is the charismatic figure for majority of Keynesian economists (the group of economists supporting to preserve market economy (capitalist system) while putting emphasis on controlling the business cycle with the positive interventions by government as a mediator of the market into economic activity. In the contemporary period the prime minister Tanaka and his policy were inevitably required for Japanese economic growth which was quite immature for the foundation of economic growth so then needed to form the sophisticated relation between government and market.

Mr. Tanaka was a revolutionary figure in Japanese politics who challenged against the traditional incompetent characteristics of "politicians" as authoritarian figures. He was successful because he combined his talent as an entrepreneur and as an politician together. Entrepreneurs (Capitalists) are good at planning for capital development and optimising resource usage while being trained in various business competitions and acquiring trusts from individuals. By contrast, politicians can only secure their job security by means of relying on extracting taxation which is collected from individuals with their authoritarian enforcement. Following this fact entrepreneurs seem to be much productive and better at self-management. But if politicians are always under the pressure to accomplish their job and are obliged to obtain trusts from individuals without an authoritarian collective force, they may become responsible to contribute and compete under the pressure as similar to entrepreneurs.

Meanwhile entrepreneurs naturally get involved in competition and enforced to accomplish their duties, politicians can be spoiled and make the environment less competitive in the occupation secured by their esteem. They collect their profits from a political theft called taxation, and it is not necessary to gain respects from individuals because these individual citizens have to pay tax involuntarily regardless of these tax contributors' satisfaction rate. Therefore, unlike entrepreneurs who always need to make an effort of attracting their customers by providing them with satisfying goods and services in order to gain profits. Especially in the immature democratic system like in Japan tends to remain such a fact. Amazingly, despite this tendency the former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka conducted his business pursuit established by Mr Tanaka himself to lead both private business and government body help each other so then laid the basis of Japanese economic growth.

Predicted Financial Havoc in 2019 by means of the position of Jupiter and Neptune

The position of Jupiter is the key factor in terms of modern western astrology to focus on the financial luck. Money is represented by Jupiter and various kinds of flows are represented by Neptune. Then, the combination of money and the flow is the symbol of the financial market characteristics.

In appendix, the single chart of both April, 2018 and January 2019 is displayed. These single charts indicate the environment of the world situation by means of the astrological analysis. Please refer to these charts to read the following sentences.

When Jupiter and Neptune form triangle (60 degree) or zero degree , it is considered to be the fortunate angle (triangle is fortunate unless there is any bad-luck aspect on it. Zero degree is controversial to say whether good luck or bad luck but it often exaggerates the characteristics of both planets together). So, the world financial situation will be stable in this year. This positioning of Jupiter and Neptune is also called as the "bubbling aspect" because of its financial fortune.

When Jupiter and Neptune form square (90 degree) or face each other from opposite side (180 degree), it is considered to be the risky angle. This is often said to be a bad luck but it can still bring a fortune when we realise how to handle the situation set by these planets' position. According to this positioning, a significant risk will arise in the world financial market when Jupiter starts crossing the ascendant of Aries.

Because Neptune is already on the process of crossing the ascendant of its own sign Pisces, the impact caused by Neptune is already strong. So, the impact of the transition of Jupiter from crossing the ascendant of Scorpion to the counterpart of Sagittarius will be significant. In January, 2019, because Jupiter and Neptune will form the tight square (90 degree), the effect will emerge very sharply.


The interesting factor is that the current world financial market is stable but it is still in the stagnation. Both European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have announced that they may end their quantitative easing programme in 2019. This implies the financial stability sustained by the artificial quantitative easing by major central banks will hit the world financial market negatively.

The concern is that the current financial stability has been artificially propped up by the artificial intervention by these major central banks in stead of the natural recovery of the world economic structure. The fundamental economic structure does not seem to recover because majority of countries still struggle with improving their economic performances (employment, average income, debt repayment, etc). Then, the end of the quantitative easing will cause the volatility of the market on the top of this current stagnation.

However, even though many may lose their financial fortune, there will be a gateway to earn extra financial fortune nn January, 2019. At that time, Jupiter, representing money and philosophy, forms a triangle with Uranus, representing spontaneity and revolution, and Saturn, representing stability, structure, and tradition, forms a square with Uranus. This seems to imply that there will be an innovation and a revolutionary method of investment which will be difficult to be recognised by the mass. Thus, this will be a havoc bringing financial misfortune for many as well as a risky chance of gaining a fortune for some.


* Appendix *

Astro-Chart in April, 2018




Astro-Chart in January, 2019

Monopoly of Corporatism Expands in Present Day Capitalism: Average Cost sfhits Rightward

The transaction cost of physical capital and information has significantly declined due to lowering the economic and political barrier of regulation across national borders in capitalism in the present. This expands the economics of scale and enables the specialisation of production so that both quantity and quality of goods and services have increased. The classical model of market multiple firms compete each other and constantly replace their market leader used to prevail when the economic of scale was smaller than nowadays.

Nevertheless, market competition is rather discouraged when market is freed because the market judges that selected firms capable to expand their production scale so that the classical model hardly prevails nowadays. When the economies of scale expands, a bigger production scale minimises the average cost of quantity produced. This also means that the firms having a big capacity of expanding their production scale take advantage of this expansion, and the other counterparts struggling to obtaining enough (physical and human) capital tend to suffer from losing in the market competition.

Big corporations and a few small firms succeeding in a remarkable innovation are those who are able to take an advantage of expanding their production scale to the optimum level minimising their average cost. By contrast, majority medium and small scale firms often struggle to compete with the wider productivity scale of the aforementioned counterparts taking advantage of their bigger capacity of expansion. This is one of the remarkable reasons why there are many merge and acquisition among various existing firms taking place.

Therefore, nowadays, instead of multiple firms with relatively small production capacity competing in a market, it is feasible to select a few firms which are capable enough to expand their production capacity. In another word, the production is more collectivised in capitalism in the present than capitalism in the past so that this sounds like the prediction of Vladimir Lenin about how capitalism eventually evolves has become reality.

Capitalism in the present has its benefit for not only the successful minorities owning means of production in a bigger scale than the past but also majority consumers enjoying goods and services with better quantity and quality available. Furthermore, those who have an innovative idea and some special talent are more easily discovered to be promoted thanks to the current development of information technology than the past.

The painful characteristic of this economic model in the present is that the number of those who are able to own means of production decreases. Due to the higher requirement of their production scale, less individuals are able to gain their access to run their business with an optimum cost required by the current market. On the top of it, not so many individuals can frequently innovate ideas guaranteed to contribute to an economy. If everyone were innovative enough to always have an equal opportunity to succeed, none would suffer from the constant threat of being deprived and everyone would be rich already.

The decreasing number of firms producing goods and services implies lowering the quantity of labour employed. Mere consumers not owning means of production have to compete with the others to gain their income source. Then, although majority consumers may enjoy higher quantity of goods and services with a lower price in a short run, their income level and their opportunity of gaining income may be repressed due to facing the higher competition of selling their labour. Therefore, they may have to restrict their expenditure in order to save their income in a medium-long run.

It does not necessarily imply to reincarnate the past economic model to shrink the current economies of scale because the current economic environment still has its benefit. What it should require is transforming the current model to adjust in order to maximise the happiness of individuals by minimising the pains from this market transition. It ought to innovate the method of mitigating the pains of this model such as restricted competition among individuals and access to owning means of production while taking an advantage of high productivity.


** Appendix **

Graph 1: Average Cost Curve shifts Rightward


Graph 2: Average Costs and Average Revenue = Demand Curve


Graph 3: Marginal Cost = Marginal Revenue

Re-post: Lower Credit Rating = Higher the Risk Premium = Higher Interest Payment

* Posted on Monday, August 08, 2011 *

The credit rating tends to be determined by the frequency of trade of this national debt. Long (buy) = higher the rate; Short (sell) = lower the rate. This decline in the credit rate means rise in the risk premium so that the interest payment has to go up. The investors (the saving curve) requires higher security on investment to the government (the investment curve): The saving curve shifts left along the investment curve. Therefore, the quantity traded goes down, and then the value of this share goes down...