Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Science and Logics are subjective: Mathematics is only the objective science!


Einstein and the modern physicists amended this formula into
E=MC^2
, which is the main stream theorem.

The old Newtonian model, E=MC, had never tested to assess whether it fit in with how actually the geometry worked in the real world. This formula was based on a pure assumption.

However, all natural science models, except those based on statistic modelling method, are problematic and highly subjective as same as logic.

The mathematical model is useful and costless, however all the signs and the sensitivities in the formulae are just assumed rather than produced especially in the old days when the computer technology and the statistic theories were not developed enough.

The reason why natural science is subjective as same as logic is as follows.

As a matter of fact, the results determine the theories rather than the theories determine the result in natural science. All scientists create their theories by finding the result to model them. However, many scientists always think that their theories contribute to find the results, and their thought is a completely false belief and merely a propaganda to make mass believe they are the authority.

Einsteinian and modern scientists' amendment of Newtonian science is the typical example. As these modern scientists examined how the geometry worked in the real world, they finally found out that the energy was not linear as what Newtonian scientists assumed; and then they changed the formulae.

Furthermore, these scientists claim their theories produce the mathematical models. Nonetheless, this is also the false assumption. They create mathematical formulae which "look like" as though they fit in with what the variables move. But, these formulae hardly become perfectly fitting with what the variables move in the real world because there is always an error (a residual in their formulae). The formulae may be valid if the error correction model proves the error tends to be corrected.

Nevertheless, this does not encourage to believe the theories produce the mathematical models: It is more likely that the mathematical models find the most appropriate theories. For example, in electro-magnetics, a physicist tried to make a mathematical modelling which models the movement of electro-magnetic by using various variables this physicist thought needed. However, the model did not fit in with what the movement is actually is. There is only another variable in the formula was needed, but this physicist did not know what this unknow variable was then. The task for this physicist then became to find this additional unknown variable. Then, this physicist finally found it, and tried the scientific experiment by referring to the new formula!

As Immanuel Kant, the famous German philosopher, said mathematics could be the only science which is objective.

Only the sets of "a priori", the objective measure verifying the knowledge emphasised is absolute, in the physical world (which is what I also called "the real world" in this article) are latitude, longitude, altitude, time, and immediate feelings. The other physical knowledge, in past, present, and future, only comes from the bias induced by subjective feelings and "expected" outcomes.

Logic does not have an objective measure to self-contradict to proof this makes sense unlike Mathematics which has a strong objective measure called "Axiom".

Scientific knowledge based on assumption offered by scientific logic is therefore not objective and highly subjective because it is awfully biased by the subjective assumptions.

If formulae and their variables, signs, and sensitivities are found by statistically analysing the data sets found in a survey or experiments in our real world, these formulae are at least verifying to be based on a priori of the physical world, latitude, longitude, altitude, time, and immediate feelings, and the mathematical world, axiom. Therefore, they are more likely to be objective.

Statistical models are useful to make semi-objective formulae because they can be proved and self-contradicted by "a priori" unlike the formulae and their variable, signs, and sensitivities are based on assumption based on pure logic.



* The following quote is based on what John Locke, the British philosopher called the father or liberalism, Immanuel Kant, one of the most influential modern German philosopher, and one of my mathematics teachers in one of the universities I graduated from stated:

... I believe in God; God is a fundamental axiom of our world; mathematics is based on axiom; both axioms, God and mathematical axiom, are "a priori", the objective measure verifying the knowledge emphasised is absolute; Mathematics assesses axiom; God and mathematical axiom are absolute; Mathematics has a power to assess something equivalent to God, the absolute being; The existence of God could be inferred by mathematics as John Locke stated in "An essay concerning human understanding"; As my Mathe teacher said God may admire Mathematics then; As my Mathe teacher said, Mathematics is equivalent to or more powerful than God; Therefore, I admire and believe in Mathematics, based on axiom, and Statistics, based on both mathematics and "a priori" of the physical world which may be called as God, as the only objective science!

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Reading list of articles on line

------ Econometric Data -----

* World Data:

- Penn World Table
http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt_index.php
The new page (Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Faculty of Economics and Business):
https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/


- IMF Data Mapper
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD


- Penn Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID)
http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ciddata/ciddata.html


- eurostat, Data Base
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database


- Gleditsch and Ward, ‘Minimum Distance Data // Kristian Skrede Gleditsch ‘(2001)
http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/~ksg/mindist.html

- Penn Actualités du CEPII, Geodesic Distances’
http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/distances.htm


- CIA - The World Factbook -- Field Listing :: Area
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2147.html


- MarineWaypoints.com - Great Circle Distance Calculator
http://www.marinewaypoints.com/learn/greatcircle.shtml


- Paul Hensel's General International Data Page
http://www.paulhensel.org/dataintl.html



- Happy Planet Index
http://www.happyplanetindex.org/data/


- OECD Statistics
http://www.oecd.org/statistics/


* UK and Scottish Data:

- Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics
http://www.sns.gov.uk/


- nomis - official labour market statistics
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/


- General Register Office for Scotland (GROS)
http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/




------ Philosophy and Law ------

* Project Gutenberg (Public Domains):
http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Main_Page


* Max Stirner
- Egoism:
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/34580


- Max Stirner (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy):
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/max-stirner/



* Jeremy Bentham

- An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation
http://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremy-bentham/index.html


- A Fragment on Government
http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/het/bentham/government.htm


- Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832)
http://www.victorianweb.org/philosophy/bentham.html



* Jean Jacques Rousseau
- THE SOCIAL CONTRACT
OR PRINCIPLES OF POLITICAL RIGHT
http://www.constitution.org/jjr/socon.htm



* Matthew Arnold
- Culture and Anarchy
http://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/4212/pg4212.html



* Charles de Montesquieu
- The Spirit of Laws
http://www.constitution.org/cm/sol-02.htm

-- The Spirit of Laws
http://www.constitution.org/cm/sol_01.htm


* J. S. Mill
- A System of Logic
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=daQAAAAAMAAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=A+System+of+Logic&source=bl&ots=_ObnctNc3D&sig=1YQntmmSeX6wmta0QRzQiOwa3NI&hl=en&ei=IDYjTZ35HMq2hQfwxpW4Dg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=4&ved=0CDUQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q&f=false



* Erik Olin Wright
- http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~wright/



* Adolf Hitler
- Mein Kampf:
http://magister.msk.ru/library/politica/hitla002.htm




* Egoism
- Rational Egoism (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/egoism/#3


- Rational The Ego and His Own: Introduction
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNiyxnxId_4&feature=related


- Stirner on Egoism vs. Immorality
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF4pyh5KESs




* Law
- A Primer on the Civil-Law System
http://www.fjc.gov/public/pdf.nsf/lookup/CivilLaw.pdf/$file/CivilLaw.pdf


- Wikipedia, Comparative law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_law


- Wikipedia, Civil law (legal system)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_law_%28legal_system%29


- Wikipedia, Equity (law)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equity_%28law%29


- Wikipedia, Custom (law)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customary_law




* Russian New Year Tradition Movie:
- The Irony Of Fate
http://video.kylekeeton.com/2008/12/russian-video-new-year-tradition-movie.html

Wednesday, March 09, 2011

The oil price inflation is over exaggerated!

As there is still a plenty inventory of oil enough to calm the stagflation down
all the investors are just over-anticipating the bad news in the future.
That is why the oil price is rising, but this price rise will be just temporary.

Therefore, we should not be confused between the fake shock and the real shock.
According to the commentator on this video clip, the current oil price shock is the fake shock.

I would recommend not to react against the current shock on the oil price.
The oil price will goes down after a while.

My concern is that the reactions toward this shock (e.g. the interest rate hike due to the expected inflation caused by this oil price shock) themselves will induce another economic recession.

The controlling inflation is a top priority of any monetary policy so that the reaction toward the current fear of the oil price inflation itself (raising the interest rate) is right.
However, the monetary policy has to re-set the interest rate down soon as the "temporary" price shock calms down in order to avoid the recession caused by the excessly high interest rate undermining a healthy economic recovery.

Hense, I recommend you neither to intend to purchase the oil in the forward rate agreement nor to buy the share related to the oil industry in the forward rate agreement.
Otherwise, you are predicted to make a loss in the trade.

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Concerning Fiscal Conservativism and Keynesian, and European Integration

My friend wrote as follows (shown in Italic letters):
I'd introduce a massive, wholesae Keynesian policy, of state spending to invest in infrastructural development and to uphold demand across manufacturing and industry. Then, utilise the subsequent growth to pay down the subsequent high debt levels.

Coalition is monetarist and fiscall conservative, thus I disagree. Labour aren't real Keynesians, they just want to spend money haphazardly all over the place - thus they are even more dangerously irresponsible than the coalition. Labours non-economics would merely result in protecting vested interests.



(My comment)
Although I quote a lot of Keynesian analysis, I am monetary and fiscal conservative. There is an example: One of the reason why I say is that I often refer to the "liquidity trap" mentioned by Keynesian analysis to reject the "hypowered money" mentioned by the one type of monetarists.

By the way, your theory faces on the contradiction:
(1) You support liberal economism,
(2) you support Keynesian policy,
(3) you support the European Monetary and Fiscal integration,
(4) you support the Federalism in the European Union level
(5) then you support Human right in the European Unionism

Then, (4)+(3)+(2) contradicts (1),
although (2) or (2) + (3) itself does not necessarily contradicts (1) if it is in a smaller scale.

If I were supporting your policy, I would add

(6) Abolition or minimisation of trade unions in the EU (at least to the US level), and setting minimum wage at the level of the most deprived EU member country.

and

(7) strong Fascist social policy intervention to enforce to replace the national governments with the branch local authorities of the European Federal government and to eliminate the enermies and the social defectors who disrupt the smooth European integration under the federal rule.

But if you add all up from (1) to (7), you MUST subtract (5) to accomplish all the rests.

If German 3rd empire had conquelled the whole Europe, the true and stable united Europe would have been established.

The current speed of the both economic and social European integration is too slow and too unstable!

At least, Britain should keep away from the wave of this danger...

Friday, January 07, 2011

Currently, both the EU and the USA are against the free market principle

In terms of microeconomic point of view, the common currency is beneficial to trade between companies across the border.

Nonetheless, the common currency does not imply the free market. The beneficiality of introducing a common currency in the EU is that the trade frequency between countries in the EU is significantly higher than the USA. However, the labour mobility rate between countries in the EU is significantly lower than the US counterpart.

It is not fully proven yet whether a common currency leads the economy to have a high trade frequency and the labour mobility across the border or these factors require introducing a common currency.

If the statement "Free market demands common currency" is valid, it should be that both the trade frequency and the labour mobility have been high before a common currency is introduced, and then a common currency should be introduced afterward. However, if the reason to introduce the common currency is to "expect" the trade frequency and the labour mobility to become high after introducing the currency, the aspect does not fulfill the natural mechanism of the free market. Under the free market, needs induce the supply; expectations are not necessarily relevant to induce the supply.

Under the current European situation, although the aggregate level of trade frequency across the border is high there are a few countries which do not fulfill the condition such as Ireland and Greece. Furthermore, there is a huge barrier of introducing a common currency under the free market principle which is the labour mobility. If the EU situation is that the free market demands the Euro, the labour mobilty should have been much higher than what the EU has got.



All in all, I would like to strongly put emphasis on the statement that both the EU and the USA do not hold their own single currency used among their own states or countries inside them due to the free-marketism.

For example, as a matter of fact, the USA should abandon the single currency system and her federal government interaction into her market if she wants a free market! The US market has a significantly lower trade frequency across the borders between her countries than the EU and Asian economic regions. The current US situation craves for the strong federal planned economic intervention in order to stick these individual states with being the United States of America!!



In order to accomplish to estabilish a free market system, abolition of nation states is necessary in order to allow all individual regions to become free from any planned economic intevention. Overall, nationalism and unionism never go well together with a free market! "Anarch-Capitalism" is only the answer to support free market!!

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Land tax is both fair and progressive

Income tax is progressive i.e. an effective tax collecting method if we consider about the marginal propensity to consume and save.

But, it has a high risk to disturb "equity" (synonym of fairness).
It discourages the wealth accumulation by hard working and penalises those who bring an income and/or a talent into that economic region.

The most effective tax is on "land"! Land is a common good and its externality such as pollution and over-population is high contiguous to the others.

Furthermore, land based tax is effective to control the business cycle more than income tax.

Income earners may earn their income in a particular region and spend and invest it in outside this region. Therefore, the effect of income tax is contigent to areas which are not accountable to controlling a business cycle of a particular region.

In addition, the means of production of income is a combination their working effort and a reward from investment. Income tax simply means to penalise working effort and investment. Therefore, income tax has a risk to stagnate the economic productivity.

By contrast, if some one uses a land, it simply means s/he utilises the value of this land. People can utilise to live in a household on it, earn income in the firm on it, and invest into a property on it. These activities also contain working effort and beneficiality of investment. However, unlike income tax, people utilise land to do these activities. These activities can cause pollution, over-population, and business cycle overhear or slump. Furthermore, the means of land tax is hardly contiguous because it directly burdens taxes on the land where the economic activity is derived from. All in all, the land tax accounts on the "equity" of utlising and costing it. Thus, it fulfils the condition of "equity" i.e. fairness.

In addition, land tax can be not only fair but also progressive. High income earners are more able to buy and keep the land with a high value and/or high costs than the rest. Then, land tax is able to tax in proportion to the marginal propensity to saving (In terms of the absolute income hypothesis, consumption of permanent items such as households and lands and investment are considered as a part of saving).












P.S.
I support abolition of taxes on consumption such as sales tax and VAT.

As long as the price elasticity of demand is low, it is a fair indirect taxation because individuals pay as they use.
It is regressive but fairer than the inflation tax (High inflation)

Nonetheless, tax on consumption stagnates economic active level because it harms not only on consumers but also producers. If the price elastiicity of demand is high, then the penalty on producers is much higher than on consumers. Therefore, it is NOT FAIR because it pernalises those who increase the sum of utility among individuals!

Tax on consumption is highly contiguous to those who are not accountable to pay the tax. As we know this tax is not able to control over business cycle and burdens those from outside the economic regions where this taxation exists. Therefore, it disturbs the business cycle and causes moral hazard of taxation (Those who are not responsible for the tax also pay tax!).

Corporations which have a high volume of export gain a high volume of tax rebate. This fact discourages small businesses, creates a barrier for new firms to get into the market, and reduces the internal aggregate demand.