Sunday, March 04, 2012

Oh, if Stalin had been born in a capitalist nation, he would have been a very sucessful capitalist....



Socialist Country such as USSR is where one extraordinarily humongous corporation monopolises an entire market of an entire country! Therefore, what Stalin did would be right for his own and his corporation because he followed the rational egoism to administrate his corporate governance. If all excellent persons were in the same situation as Stalin was, they would be same dickhead cruel uncivilised bastard like Stalin.

By contrast, our healthy capitalist society does not allow such a mal-function in the market. Capitalism supports the equilibrium, fair competition, and natural right for individuals. Therefore, it is almost impossible to establish the same system as the USSR unless it installs an intense collectivist policy. Oh, I regret Josef Stalin was born in Soviet Socialism... If Stalin had been born in a capitalist nation, he would have been a very successful capitalist....

Monday, February 27, 2012

On Participatory Economics



I searched the definition of Participatory Economics, and I realised it sounds like Anarch-Syndicalism. It is still a "decentralised collectivist economy"! Relying on "Decision" by means of economic distribution is very dangerous! We cannot 100% predict the resource allocations and inventories, and the "nature" always betrays our decision/will!

Speaking of the self-management, it sacrifices "advantages of division of labour", causes a cut threat competition among these small economic agents, incurs a very high cost to obtain and protect the market information, and creates a bigger income and social inequality than comprehensive liberalism = capitalism (*) does (Who decide where and how those people in this system work?).

If the answer of the last question I asked you is a "democratic decision making process" (You may mean direct democratic), it will defnitely fail into the same problem of Athenian democracy which Hobbes highly criticised! The critical problem of direct democracy is that it always ends up with either a compromised unstable outcome or the outcome that an "orator" offers. It would avoid this outcome as long as the majority are highly rational and/or the the orator is very talented. However, I have hardly seen this kind of civilisation yet in any where nor any time period. That's why a certain degree of autocracy should remain and/or lassez-faire (spontaneously distributes human, phisical, and intellectual resources) should be encouraged! Comprehensive liberalism = capitalism equips both advantages of a certain degree of autocracy and laissez-faire. Thus, comprehensive liberalism = capitalism is only the best alternative!

All in all, capitalism = comprehensive liberalism is the most "natural" system where people "passively take" the situation for granted. J.M. Keynes claimed that we should intervenue if necessary but we must understand and follow the nature of ""market geometry""!

Marx (I know Participatory Economics is totally different from Marxism, I must mention Marx for those who frequently use the word "capitalism" to call and criticise comprehensive-liberalism) considered this system "always in the boom" and "always benefits" to bourgeoigie. But, Marxian assumption is totally wrong! He ignored the existence of "the cycle". Any economic system has a cycle. When "capitalism/liberal-economism" is in a recession, both bourgeoigie and proletariat suffer. However, capitalist system is the most controlable system among all the economic systems having ever existed! We must remember J. M. Keynes saying "Although I am not convinced by unconscious aristocrats, I am proud of myself as a bourgeoigie because I am not an uneducated uncivilised rough proletariat!" As long as freedom of choice and natural right are protected, and we are aware of business cycle, capitalism = comprehensive liberalism is the most flexible and ideal economic system, human-beings have ever seen!



(*) "Capitalism" is only the name used by Marxist to call "Liberal Economism" whose "Liberal" means "Classical Liberalism" or "Comprehensive Liberalism"!




P.S.
All in all, "any kind of socialism" is an opiate worse than religion.... As I have seen many mobs and hypocritic elites calling themselves as socialist, I recognise majority of these mobs are really spoiled, detached from the reality, arrogant (looking down all their opponents as "unintelligent"), and dangerous (always threatening our public safety by unproductive riots, ear-souring speaches, and pessimism which is very contingent to the other innosent people). I know you are never going to become as such. But, I hope you are never going to suffer from this disease of socialism...!

Sunday, February 19, 2012

What Ayn Rand said will explain a lot in this year...!


Remember that our wonderful Ayn Rand said something like

"Capitalism needs its own philosophy to develop and maintain itself!"

and

"There are many philosophers who influenced and construct the development of capitalism, but there is no philosopher except me (Ayn Rand) who has created the pholosophy to "conserve" capitalism!".

Well, I am sure that we will see what Ms. Rand said is going to prove something sigfinicant to the current global economic situation....!

Saturday, February 04, 2012

D&D Alignment Chart for International Financial Economics



* SFr(Swiss Franc): Lawful Good

This currency is internationally influential and still yet keeps the stability of its value. The information confidentiality of investors is very safely protected. Switzerland economic growth is robust. The value of this currency is always guaranteed because the strength of its value is always strong. The Swiss monetary policy is relatively conservative and stable and hardly takes a deviant action so that its value is predictable almost all the time. Thus, this currency is known to be the most trust able currency in this world (Lawful and Good).



* Gold: Neutral Good

The value of Gold never becomes zero because Gold itself has its own value as a commodity. Gold has been used as the most frequently used currency in the human history. The value of currencies used to be fixed with the convertibility to Gold. Nowadays, both Gold value and the value of all currencies moves flexibly. However, Gold is still considered as the safe asset to keep especially when the world financial situation is unpredictable and/or under a severe crisis. All in all, Gold is a neutral character, and always a good last resort for investors to secure their wealth.



* Euro: Chaotic Good

The newly introduced common currency in some European countries. Due to the compromised design of the fiscal structure in the Eurozone economy, this currency market is in a big chaos, and then also causes chaos in this global economy. Originally, this currency has a good aim, but its introduction induced to the chaotic consequence. The monetary policy by European Central Bank (ECB) is very rational and trustable, and realises the economy will not be stable unless the fiscal structure is reformed. The monetary policy still has a rational decision making power, and there is still a good expectation of this currency's future. Nonetheless, the attempt of introducing this currency under such a unique monetary system is very challenging, and it is still not sure whether this attempt becomes successful or simply fails.

Please read my essays about the European Union economy shown in the following link:
http://art-blue-liberalism.blogspot.com/search/label/European%20Union



* British Pound Sterling: Lawful Neutral

The value of this currency is always fluctuant so that not so good to trust its value but not bad to distrust. The monetary policy by Bank of England is relatively rational and proactive to the economic situation concerning the UK. Both the value of this currency and the monetary policy seem to always follow the natural law of this global financial market. The influence of the money supply of this currency is neither good nor bad.


* Japanese Yen: True Neutral

This currency is always a very neutral currency in terms of its action and characteristics. Japanese monetary policy is very passive to both Japanese and the world economic situation. There is no motivation of the monetary policy encouraged by any objectives. People still fairly trust this currency but not as much as the currencies in the Western world and the commodities.



* Russian Rouble: Chaotic Neutral

Although Russian economy has gained some credibility, her market situation is still unstable. This aspect caused her currency value is not so stable. It is still influential but does not have much unique characteristic yet.



* US dollar: Lawful Evil

The excess quantitative easing seems to stimulate neither US economy nor the world economy. This depreciates the value of this currency very sizably so that many investors feel very unsecured to keep this currency. However, the volume of this currency's money supply still has an enormous influence over this entire world economy. The monetary policy plays the game fair, and does not betray those who are royal to the USA and her economy. However, as soon as the US sees someone as an enemy of the USA and her economy, the punishment toward this enemy is very severe. In the history, this currency has acted as a leader of the world trade. However, the value is very fluctuating, and always suddenly changes not only its monetary policy but also the international policy such as termination of the Bretton Wood system. It still follows the international agreement on the international finance and trade, but it is known as a bully.



* Oil: Chaotic Neutral

Oil is a commodity which is frequently traded as a financial asset as well. In particular, since the derivative trade was introduced, Oil has been traded as a financial asset. Oil is an important natural resource for many economic activity so that the contingency of its value fluctuation is extremely big in the global financial market. Especially since the derivative trade started, the value of Oil has become very fluctuant so that the movement of its value severely affects people's life. In addition, the OPECs' political situation is very unstable, so the policy made by the OPECs often tends to be very bully for both the real market and the financial market in this world. It is neutral by means of characteristics because the value of Oil is dependent on not only by the OPECS, the suppliers, and the financial traders, but also the real market situation such as the demand for Oil and the technology of Oil usage. There are so many variables influencing the value of Oil.


* Renminbi: Chaotic Evil

The utterly selfish Chinese monetary policy caused the havoc in this global financial situation! Even though China joins WTO, it has never made any consensus with the organisation members. The artificial increase in the money supply to artificially reduces its value to increase the trade surplus in terms of the current account takes place, and then it induced a chaotic currency depreciation race among many countries. Although Chinese economy has grown to become the 2nd largest in the world, nobody does not rely on Renminbi as a reliable monetary asset. China should have realised that, although Chinese economy produces a trade surplus in their current account, they certainly make a significant loss in their capital account.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

The Top 10 Millitary Leaders in World History




10 Takeaki Enomoto Genius of diplomacy, language, and tactics. He attempted to establish the federal republic of Japan instead of Meiji restoration

9 Saladin He defeated many crusaders to save peaceful Islamic communities. He was famous for his mercifulness.

8 Friedrich Barbarossa Joined 3rd Crusader. Emperor, scientist ,and artist. He lead Tutonic empire to be unified and expanded.

7 Julius Caesar Charismatic Roman General. Known for ordering troops and the great usage of siege weapons.

6 Elwin Rommel The Desert Fox. His tactics brought German various victories in Africa. The best general ever in German History!

5 Genghis Khan Unified scattered normad trivals into one huge empire. Known for his great usage of mounted archer bands.

4 Oliver Cromwell Lord Protector of Great Britain. Founder of New Modelled Army. He brought meritocracy into British military.

3 Napoleon Bonaparte Established a great new law and order. Genius of artillery usage. His great usage of cannons lead France to invade Italy.

2 Zhuge Liang Kongming The genius Chinese from the state of Shu-Han. His knowledge was beyond humans' at the contemporary time period

1 Alexandros The Great No one can be more famous tactician than him! His tactics is still influential in this modern world military tactics

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

On Keynes and Hayek: Macroeconomics is Geographical rather than Political

Both the traditional Kenyesian and Hayekian macroeconomic policies are no longer effective in this current world where the systemic risk in the global market is high. Unless it stimulates all countries' economy simultaneously, Keynesian stimulus package does not work. Unless there is an extremely universal consensus, Hayekian structural reform does not work. The universal government is less likely to be wanted so that both policies won't be accepted. Nowadays, the world economy seems to be turning back to focus on more Microeconomics like in the past. We are no longer able to expect the aggregate level to be either up or stabilised. Each economic agent now has to rely on his/her own risk management analysis, which is a microeconomic subject, in order to survive in this unpredictable macroeconomic environment.....



I admire Keynes himself because he accused Ricardo's theories for his misunderstanding of how the real world economy actually functions. Keynes was successful to offer the theories which are more correlated to the real world situation unlike Ricardo's ones. His critical analyses about the aspect that all classical economists ignored are very clear and sophisticated.

However, Keynes' fault is that he did not clearly mention "how exactly and effectively" pour their stimulus money into economy. This was the crucially weak characteristics of Keynesian theory.

I don't see Hayek as an economist; He is more likely a political economist / political philosopher.

I strongly argue that macroeconomics is more geographical rather than political i.e. passive than positive



Speaking of Monetary Economy, both Keynes and Hayek do not answer fully about how individual economic agents respond to the interest rate. The central bank's interest rate is (as long as it is operated rationally without any politicised ideological bias) merely determined to adjust the real interest rate to be zero as much as possible. If it is deviated from zero, it of course negatively affects macroeconomic environment. But, it does not mean the zero rate stimulate economy: The stimulus is very different from the central bank's interest rate.

Neither the animal spirit nor the long term expectation is fallacy. The right answer to describe the investment motive in the monetary economy is "There is nothing to specify a factor that stimulates in the macroeconomic level"! There is even a possibility that in a chaotic depression, the investment motive dramatically increases because of the possibility to win the gamble! Furthermore, in the economic boom, the interest rate tends to be "lowered" because the "risk of bankruptcy" of borrowers goes down.

This does not mean irrational; This is actually a very rational acts by economic agents because they act owing to their own surrounding environment, information obtained from their own sources, and psychological preference. Thus, Keynes' animal spirit fails. In addition, these economic agents do not too much care about the structural issues so much.

They decide their investment plan by means of the "form of contract" with their clients, rather than the structure of the borrowers' business. The contract differs across different types of borrowers. So, as long as the contract ensures to bring some business gain, investors are quite happy to lend money to mal-structured businesses. Thus, Hayek's focus on the long term structural issues fails.