Saturday, July 10, 2010
The 5 conditions to join the European Monetary Union
There are the 5 conditions:
1. High trade frequency with the Eurozone
2. Flexible Labour Mobility
3. Harmonised Business cycle with the Eurozone's
4. Sophisticated fiscal policy and a long history of the tight monetary policy
5. Political integration.
The score for the UK:
1. Tick!
2. Tick! But, conditional. The UK should stop the unfair welfair distribution system! The way to select the individuals to gain the benefit much more carefully...
3. No. The financial regulation system has to be more centralised and controlled by the mainland EU.
4. Not too bad compared to Mediterraneans.
5. Conditionally tick. Depends on how the USA reacts, and how the EU performs in the diplomacy. In addition, the nuclear issue is a big matter! The UK nuclear technology sharing must shift from with the USA to with France. All the nuclear plants should be owned by the EU gov't!
The biggest challenge for the UK to join the EMU is the question No. 3. The UK has a strong trade tie with outside the EU, and the UK industry has been sustained by her remarkably famous very liberalised financial market. It'll be a big challenge for the UK citizens to abandon their tradition as the centre of internationan financial market... In addition, the problem of the question No. 5 is France.
France has to abandon her nationalism! France has to make the nuclear technology shared with the EU gov't!
>I'd be keeping an eye on German politics. They are paying for the Greeks and others.
I think (and feel) the continental Europe will survive with the EMU. In fact, meanwhile the EMU needs to enforce transformation (It will be oppressive) to the European Federalism, the economy eventually will be stabilised and face an economic recovery in 2014.
Creation of the "Eurobond" is better than enforcing one country or a few countries to transfer their tax revenue.
If I were the EU governor, I would have made all the Eurozone countries to DEFAULT in order to abolish all the national debt of these member countries. Then, all the fiscal stimulus packages should be paid off by the "Eurobond" i.e. collective responsiblity among the all Eurozone countries. This way will give much better prospect for the economic growth inside the Eurozone so that the Golden Role will be encouraged. In this way, the Eurobond will be more popular to be purchased so that the EU finance will be much lucrative.
In addition, I wonder how the USA reacts, and how France is willing to share the nuclear issue with the UK.
* The advantange for the UK to join the EMU:
1. Becomes easier to establish a branch of Europe in the UK and of the UK in Europe.
2. Financial market is more integrated with the EMU countries so that the risk of shock in the financial market is shared among the EMU countries
3. If the Euro-bond is created (This is the final condition to support joining the EMU!), the UK will take an advantage of the credibility of the Euro and the Euro-bonds (Creating the common currency also requires the common bond i.e. abolishing the national debt system)
But, whereas there are various advantages, I am a wee bit still sceptical about this integration...
1. The power of trade unions need to be diminished (Which is good, but the wage bargaining power of labourer in the entire EMU needs to be 10% or below so that the riot of labourers may occur)
2. The fiscal policy should be dictated by the EU central gov't, and weaken the dicision making power of the national gov't (especially during the first step of the estabilishment: It can allow more decentralisation after the status-quo of the EU federation is stabilised)
3. Immigration law for non-EU skilled labour force will be much stricter than now so that I am wondering if """I""" may have a disadvantage :( (This is the statement the UKIP put emphasis on)
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